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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 September 2024

Falling trade balance hides pick-up in Malaysian export momentum

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian export figures point to above-consensus 2024 growth

  • Ignore Malaysia’s smaller trade surplus in August, as the economy ramps up intermediate imports...
  • ...The recovery in electronics exports continues to gather steam, powering manufacturing growth.
  • The CBC sounds increasingly desperate in trying to rein in housing prices; an uphill task, in our view.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Record surplus aside, Taiwan's exports running on a single engine

  • Electronics to the US for AI-related investment continue to support Taiwanese export growth…
  • …This demand is likely to remain firm, but its strong performance hides weakness elsewhere.
  • The July fall in Malaysian retail sales growth is more likely stabilisation, rather than real weakness.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 September 2024 Emerging Asia US demand continues to drive VN exports, but this reliance is risky

  • Vietnam’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus barely moved in August , but exports to the US are flying…
  • …We still expect GDP growth to slip modestly in Q3, with IP and retail sales clearly losing momentum.
  • Philippine CPI returned quickly to the BSP's range in August; the door ’s ajar for a 50bp cut in October.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BNM likely to enjoy a 'Goldilocks' moment, with a pause until 2025

  • BNM is likely to stay on hold for the rest of 2024, faced with slowing CPI and a strong GDP outlook.
  • Taiwanese CPI is set to benefit from slower imported inflation, but rental growth is still a worry.
  • Singaporean retail sales growth is likely to remain weak for most of H2, barring friendly base effects.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, August

  • In one line: Sticky housing inflation keeps headline elevated.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Travel services disinflation pushes down SG services inflation in July

  • Headline inflation in Singapore stayed at 2.4%, as services disinflation offset transportation inflation...
  • ...But it is too early to celebrate, since the drop was due to external-facing travel services disinflation.
  • Taiwanese retail sales started Q3 disappointingly, but rising wage growth is a promising signal.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, July

  • In one line: Slow start to Taiwanese retail spending growth in Q3. 

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BNM has little reason to rock the boat; likely to be on hold in 2024

  • Malaysian headline inflation benefited from food disinflation, which offset higher services inflation...
  • …But this engine of disinflation is likely to stall in the coming months, resulting in the headline rising.
  • We still expect the BNM to hold policy rates in 2024, as average inflation is below its forecast.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian exports in H2 to benefit from stronger electronics growth

  • Both export and import growth in Malaysia beat consensus by a large margin in July…
  • …But the stronger surge in import growth resulted in the trade surplus more than halving.
  • Smaller trade surpluses are likely to be typical in H2, but a pick-up in real activity should support GDP.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade Balance, Malaysia, July

  • In one line: Surplus more than halves, but little reason for concern.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 August 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Exports are likely to benefit Singaporean manufacturing in Q3

  • Growth in Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports surprised to the upside in July.
  • It was supported by a pickup in electronics exports, friendly base effects and non-monetary gold.
  • Reversal in August is likely but the overall trajector y for exports will probably stay positive in Q3.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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