Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Philippine trade takes a breather after a fast start to 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIAN CONSUMPTION ON THE MEND, SLOWLY
- …US TARIFF FRONT-RUNNING SURFACES IN FEB. TRADE DATA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s central bank held rates at 2.000%; entirely expected as inflation remains elevated.
- Retail sales fell in February, as we expected, due to the changing timing of Lunar New Year...
- ...Seasonally adjusted numbers show growth, but much of this is boosted by inflation.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for March were mixed, but the key service sector is still seeing falling momentum…
- …Altogether, the PMIs point to GDP growth slowing to mid-4% in Q1; we’re happy to stay downbeat.
- Thai exports continue to defy gravity, and US pre-tariff front-loading is only part of the picture.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s new leadership is once again saying the right things about promoting the private sector…
- …But SOEs have fallen in number; those remaining are bigger, more profitable and more efficient.
- They don’t invest as much as other firms though, strengthening the case for their further diminution.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate at 5.75% for a second meeting, against our minority rate-cut call.
- We still expect 100bp in total easing this year; the consensus on 2025 inflation remains way too high.
- The equity sell-off will add more urgency to cuts, as it’s deep enough to have real implications for capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s deficit consolidated in February to its smallest since mid-2021, as imports tanked…
- …But much of this was due to ongoing corrections in oil and gold imports; exports rebounded too.
- Non-oil and gold merchandise imports, plus imports of services, are still on a firm upward trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No need to panic over the nosedive in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth surprised greatly to the upside in February, leaping to 14.1%…
- …But base effects did more heavy lifting; monthly momentum and commodity support are lacking.
- Indonesia’s exports aren’t seeing any US front- loading, unlike some of its neighbours; that’s good.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blame mainly softer fuel & power deflation; headline disinflation is just around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s February export pop isn’t so black and white
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Rural consumption alone cannot underpin India’s recovery indefinitely; urban demand is a must…
- …Encouragingly, household balance sheets have come a long way from their 2023 low point.
- Wage growth and formal-sector hiring are finding their feet too, supporting the rise in spending plans.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s shockingly low February CPI was no surprise to us; now expect near-term stability in food CPI…
- …Look for the consensus to move closer to our 3.8% average CPI forecast for 2025; an April cut is a go.
- IP growth rebounded strongly in January, pointing to an early manufacturing cushion for Q1 growth.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-too-damning payback from the modest front-running, pre-VAT hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia sank in January as the pre-VAT-hike front-loading unwound.
- The current recovery in consumer confidence—if it holds—points to 2% average sales growth in 2025…
- …Faster growth will be hard to achieve, with spending already above-average in terms of income use.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s export growth really accelerated in February and was almost double consensus…
- …Driven by strong growth in exports to the US, with some recovery in demand from China.
- Headline inflation eased because of Lunar New Year base effects; food and housing remain stubborn.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
