- In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP surprised by hitting pause, blaming tariff uncertainty; we still see 100bp in cuts this year.
- Indian inflation dropped closer to the RBI’s 4% target in January; more downside in food is coming.
- We have lowered our 2025 average inflation fore- cast to 3.8%, with core price pressures also cooling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian sales boosted modestly by front-loading before the VAT rate hike
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Sales growth in Indonesia rebounded in December, as consumers brought forward some spending…
- …Ahead of what was ultimately a narrow VAT rate hike; expect an immediate correction in January.
- Overall, headline growth remains historically tepid, and leading indicators are still uninspiring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth fell more than expected in January; blame the Lunar New Year noise…
- …Yet, demand from China remains weak, with exports there falling in three of the past four months.
- Headline inflation rose too, but this—again—seems due mainly to residual Lunar New Year effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI’s first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year
The impressive run-up in Philippine sales at end-2024 owes partly to short-lived tail
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI finally started its easing cycle, cutting the repo rate to 6.25% amid slowing GDP and CPI…
- …This should be followed by an immediate cut in April; the new Governor is more for ward-looking.
- The shift to a debt-to-GDP target from 2026/27 will still necessitate a further consolidation of the deficit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Everyone seems to have forgotten the Tet noise in Vietnamese trade
A more believable retail sales print from Vietnam, no doubt flattered by Tet
Healthcare costs provide Vietamese inflation with a further—much bigger—jolt
Thai inflation continues to float just a touch above the lower bound of BoT's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Exports and public spending helped to keep Indonesia’s ship absurdly 'steady’ in Q4
Philippine inflation should start to move sideways from here
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
- Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
- Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Not the best of starts to 2025 for ASEAN manufacturing
A huge, albeit temporary, CPI gift from Indonesia’s new government
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A respectable Q4 comeback, to close out 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Support from cash stimulus starting to surface, if you squint.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We reckon Indonesian GDP growth fell ‘sharply’ to 4.7% in Q4, especially with payback due in stocks.
- Thailand’s full consumption data for Q4 show the first handout in September provided no real boost.
- The complete details of Vietnam’s hot Q4 GDP show that it was driven very narrowly by education.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Stable Q4 headline hides renewed deterioration in Philippine private consumption
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP growth missed expectations for a rise, with the headline steady at 5.2%…
- …Private domestic demand relapsed, and the quarterly lift from net trade isn’t much to celebrate.
- 2025 growth should stay largely subdued, at 5.4%, especially with investment likely to slow further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s GDP growth in Q4 was weaker than expected, at 1.8%, down from 4.2% in Q3…
- …Every component, except investment, was weaker quarter-to-quarter, especially net exports.
- The MAS finally pivoted; expect more easing to come, with core inflation under heavy pressure.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s key services PMI plunged to a 15-month low to start the year
A largely unwelcome consolidation of the Philippines’ trade deficit in late-2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
