Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Should be just a temporary drop below the BoT’s target range.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The turn in Philippine inflation is finally here
Vehicle sales in Singapore continue to flatter headline retail sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Extremely good CPI data for June, if like us you expect the BSP and the BoT to cut rates in August.
- Taiwanese headline inflation picked up in June on goods inflation, amid still-sticky services inflation.
- A continued improvement in external demand should see Singaporean GDP growth rise in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian inflation fell more quickly than expected in June, to 2.5%, as food disinflation intensified…
- …Bolstering our below-consensus CPI and BI rate forecasts; we still expect 50bp of cuts in Q4.
- The ongoing rise in manufacturing momentum in ASEAN looks durable, with activity more balanced.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Vietnam leapt to 6.9% in Q2, easily beating all expectations; we now see 6.5% for 2024.
- That said, industry and services remain historically sub-par, and industry is likely to face a tougher H2.
- The tourism recovery is still going strong, helping services, but the credit data are raising red flags.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Inflated—yet again—by ‘other’ retail sales; ignore.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The year-over-year slump in Thai consumption growth has bled into Q2, amid poor wage growth.
- The Q4 handout is unlikely to offer real relief, with more households struggling just to pay off debt.
- Philippines’ household savings rose in 2023 for the first time since 2019; the battle is far from over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP’s rate hold yesterday was very dovish, and its rhetoric signals an August cut more clearly.
- The Board has taken the opportunity offered by the rice-tariff cut to recalibrate its cautious CPI bias…
- …Its risk-adjusted CPI forecasts are now snugly within the target range; GDP is back on the agenda.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE ‘REAL’ ECONOMY WHICH LET DOWN MODI’S BJP
- …NOTE THE NUANCE IN MALAYSIA’S DIESEL-SUBSIDY REFORM
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s sky-high PMIs were mixed in Q2; services lost steam, but manufacturing hit new heights…
- …The year- over-year story is soft, though, with both gauges combined pointing to sub -6% GDP growth.
- Hiring has supposedly gone up a level in recent months, but the hard data tell a very different story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
