- In one line: The boost from ‘other’ sales fades, again; no noticeable immediate lift from the first cash-handout.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales in Taiwan unexpectedly fell by 0.5% year-over-year in October…
- …The Ministry of Economic Affairs attributes this to Typhoon Kong-rey; we see more to the story.
- We are optimistic that sales will bounce back inNovember, as one-off headwinds reverse.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
EM ASIA IS PARTICULARLY EXPOSED TO ‘TRUMP 2.0’
- …INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES DISAPPOINT IN Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Thai exports jump to a fresh high on the back of an ASEAN bump
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s customs trade balance has been deteriorating modestly for a few months…
- …Masking a now-complete recovery in nominal exports from their painful 2022 slump.
- No room for complacency, as leading indicators remain weak and the supply side is still sleeping.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Steady slide in India’s PMIs continues, despite the November pop in services
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The general downtrend in India’s PMIs is still very much in play, de spite the November services pop.
- Hiring is supposedly going gangbusters, based on the PMI, but the hard data still tell a different story.
- Indonesia is pushing ahead with a VAT hike to 12% in January; the last rise in 2022 is uninformative.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts for a second straight month, keeping the BI rate at 6.00%.
- Governor Warjiyo cited concerns over the rupiah, in view of less-aggressive Fed cuts under Trump 2.0.
- We still see the BI rate falling to a terminal level of 4.75% by end-2025, with risks to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Broad-based investment comeback drives Thailand’s market-beating Q3 GDP print
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An overdue bounce in demand from India moves Indonesia’s export recovery forward
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in October was a let-down, but it is stable, seasonality aside…
- …This is thanks to a broad-based export recovery; India is a weak spot, but it rebounded last month.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned in October, but due mainly to oil imports, not a bump in real demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Oil imports are seeing an impressive—but likely temporary—revival.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Food prices are still the main headache at the WPI level in India, too
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final Q3 GDP growth forecast for India sees it collapsing further to 6.0%, from 6.7% in Q2…
- …Falling short of the RBI’s view for a bounce to 7.0% and keeping the door open to a December rate cut.
- October CPI was very hot, but food inflation—and, by extension, the headline—likely has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Frustratingly slow recovery in Indonesian retail sales continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth is faltering—again—amid low real wage growth and fading confidence…
- …Sentiment has yet to see any rise despite falling inflation and the promise of a new government.
- Job expectations are still deteriorating the most; soft consumption looks set to continue in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine GDP growth dropped sharply to 5.2% in Q3, from 6.4% in Q2, decisively below expectations.
- Our seasonal adjustment shows that growth lost quarterly momentum; households remain anaemic.
- The capex outlook is no longer deteriorating, but BSP policy looks set to remain tighter; thank Trump.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
