A scorching end to 2024 for Vietnamese services
Exports in Vietnam are once again finding their feet
Not buying the five-month high in Vietnamese sales growth
Vietnamese inflation stays under 3% for a fourth month
Turnaround in Thai transportation & communication CPI should soon peak
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN slipped in December, to 50.7, as its DM members faltered…
- …But the headline is largely stabilising, as orders find their feet while price pressures remain muted.
- Indonesian CPI sprung no surprises in December; consensus seems blind to further food disinflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
December manufacturing let down by developed ASEAN
Reassuringly unchanged readings for Indonesian CPI to close out 2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The deceptively inflated rate of Thai retail sales growth masks a tepid response to the handout…
- …Consumer confidence is at least stabilising; rising wage growth, while encouraging, looks very fragile.
- Core IP in India continues to recover from the August plunge, with monthly trends now improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast sees GDP growth in Vietnam cooling to 6.5% in Q4, from 7.4% in Q3…
- …The moderation should be broad-based, though quirky residual seasonal effects pose upside risks.
- Household spending is still struggling; the recent pop in car sales is a policy-induced head-fake.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s deficit blow-out in November was down mainly to gold imports, which are just normalising…
- …Safe-haven demand for gold isn’t relevant now, and the current account gap is still manageable.
- The CBC’s ongoing pause remains justified; anxieties over the property market will continue.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia and the Bank of Thailand stood pat on rates yesterday, in line with market expectations.
- BI’s anxiety over the IDR is probably a red herring, and fiscal policy is in no position to provide support.
- Pay more heed to the BoT’s increasingly worried tone, not its still-rosy GDP forecasts for 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIA’S SLUMP HAS BEEN LONG IN THE MAKING
- …A SOFT END TO THE YEAR FOR ASEAN MANUFACTURING
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for December— especially services—were punchy, but the slowdown isn’t over.
- We’re still waiting for other metrics to confirm the supposed strength in hiring indicated by the PMIs.
- The sudden leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus in November is hardly wor th celebrating; imports fell.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Another leap in gold imports drags the deficit to a fresh low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A solid end to 2024 for India’s PMIs, but let’s wait for the final numbers
WPI food inflation in India has finally turned a corner
A not-so-welcome leap in Indonesia's trade surplus for November
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian inflation is back in the RBI’s range thanks to cooler food CPI; expect more of the latter in 2025…
- …But the consensus for next year is too benign, especially with core CPI set to normalise constantly.
- The further rise in IP growth in October is only a small reprieve; underlying momentum is still weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports beat expectations in November, but the underlying story is more complex.
- Demand from the US continues to slip, but monthly trends appear to be stabilising at the very least.
- Inflation in November was hot, but most of this was likely due to a weather-related bump in food price
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Q3 bounce in Indonesian retail sales growth is over, with consumer confidence still fading…
- …Weak sentiment is a bigger long-run worry than the coming VAT hike, especially with inflation so low.
- The ballooning of the Philippines’ trade deficit reflects in large part renewed misery for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An unexpectedly weak start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales
The bad—and good—aspects of the Philippines’ widening trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
