- Indonesian export growth weakened in September, highlighting the limits of the commodities boost…
- …This price lift is also fading on the import side, increasingly exposing sluggish real import demand.
- We see the current account deficit at 0.8% of GDP this year, and trade should hit Q3 GDP by 0.2pp.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian CPI predictably bounced sharply last month as favourable food base effects waned further…
- …Short-term food-price pressures are still broadly improving, and CPI expectations pose no worries.
- IP growth saw red ink in August for the first time since late-2022; the outlook remains grim.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Primary articles inflation bounces on lower base effects, but underlying inflation remains muted.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth fell sharply in September, highlighting the risks of its growing US reliance…
- …But this should be a blip, as for ward-looking indicators remain solid, especially for chips.
- CPI has fallen below the CBC’s 2% alert level for the first time in a while, but cuts are still off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine exports are finally staging a real comeback at the margin
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
No cut, but the sea change in RBI policy is here
Indonesian retail sales growth recovers to a five-month high
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI held its repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, but finally shifted its stance to “neutral”.
- Its still-optimistic GDP outlook implies it will be easy to justify a December cut, when Q3 growth falls flat.
- The outlook for food inflation—both short- and long-term—is improving, despite isolated shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The ongoing run of positive Philippine sales growth is fragile
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine sales growth stayed positive in August, but support from remittances will soon U-turn…
- …Consumer confidence remains lacklustre, and the drawdown on already-low savings is no silver bullet.
- Below-target Thai CPI continues to make the case for an imminent rate cut; rising THB risks deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Vietnam surged to a two-year high in Q3, at 7.4%, handily outstripping expectations…
- …The quarterly profile shows only a trivial loss of steam, despite the damage from Typhoon Yagi.
- The critical export sector is still going strong, though FDI inflows now appear to be peaking.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects from late-2023 utility cuts lead modest headline uptick in Thai inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation dived below the BSP’s range in September, almost ensuring a 25bp cut next week…
- …Persistent under-capacity in heavy industry remains a fundamentally disinflationary force.
- Positive price effects and recovering vehicle sales continue to mask a slump in Singaporean retail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Below-target range inflation effectively guarantees another BSP cut this month
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Export-oriented manufacturers in ASEAN hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3
Much more food disinflation ahead in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, as bad weather hit big exporters.
- The downward surprise in Indonesia’s September CPI has more legs than the upward core surprise.
- Indian core IP growth has plunged into the red for the first time since early 2021; all eyes on the RBI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai retail sales growth appears strong, in double digits, but the devil is in the details…
- …Private consumption growth—a more credible measure—remained weak and in the red in August.
- Cyclically, consumer confidence is fading and underlying job-market trends are deteriorating.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A 3.5-year low; base effects were the main culprit, but momentum is vanishing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Boosted—again—by volatile ‘other’ sales.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
