- The potential lift from Thailand’s initial cash relief will still be limited by deteriorating balance sheets.
- Big-bang restart of the BSP’s RRR cuts likely to be followed by smaller but more frequent reductions.
- The post-pandemic rise in India’s LPFR, which has flattered the unemployment rate, has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: DM demand is helping to stabilise the ship.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
BI SPRINGS A SEP. SURPRISE; 50BP MORE CUTS IN Q4
- …INDIA’S GDP GROWTH SLOWDOWN IS FAR FROM OVER
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese consumer demand remains fragile, but the weak August sales print is not representative...
- …As volatile vehicle sales growth depressed the headline; this is likely to rebound in September.
- Thai exports stayed robust in August, but leading indicators are grim and THB strength is a threat.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs are down concurrently year-over-year for the first time in a while, signalling 5% growth.
- Malaysian food inflation is likely to increase, but headline disinflation overall is still on track.
- Singapore’s core inflation rise is no cause for worry; domestic services inflation momentum is slowing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The moderation in India’s PMIs continues, as they end Q3 on a soft note
Food disinflation pushed down Malaysian inflation in August
Singaporean headline inflation falls in August, despite a pick-up in core
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The outperformance of Indian GDP growth versus other big EMs in the post- Covid era is undeniable…
- …But putting its growth pace into its proper context remove s a lot of sheen; China’s still a bigger driver.
- “Make in India” remains a macro failure, despite the smattering of success stories at the micro level.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised yesterday by starting its easing cycle, hours ahead of the Fed’s own first cut.
- We’ve added a few more rate cuts to our outlook, and now see the BI rate ending 2025 at 4.75%.
- Blame a gold rush for India’s deficit blowout in August, which masked a few key silver linings.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Post-duty cut spike in gold imports hits the deficit hard, overshadowing a more confident recovery in real import demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Down to a four-month low, thanks to a broad-based deceleration.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A solid month of August for Indonesian exports, but downside risks linger
Recovery in Singapore's semiconductor exports cushions August headline
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth rose to a 19-month high in August, but this leap faces major downside risks.
- Singapore’s exports are still benefiting from the continued recovery in electronics demand.
- RBI Governor Das sounds less adamant that rate cuts require 4% long-run CPI; all eyes on October.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re keeping to our base case that the first cut from the RBI could come as soon as next month…
- …The bounce in CPI is unlikely to be as bad as the MPC feared, with food pressures truly subsiding.
- Headline IP growth looks stable on the surface, but momentum has clearly faded in recent months.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The improvement in food inflation is real; IP is losing steam, with support from consumer industries fading quickly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian retail sales growth remains skin-deep
A reassuring start to the third quarter for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian sales growth rose to a four-month high in July, but the underlying trends remain weak…
- …Consumer confidence is still subdued year-over- year, and this could soon hurt borrowing appetite.
- The mirror image in Philippine sales growth is just as misleading; support from jobs has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Vietnamese exports are regaining momentum, thanks in large part to US demand
We’ve seen enough; downgrading our inflation forecasts for Vietnam
Actual retail sales growth in Vietnam remains in the log single-digit range
The latest slump in Philippine sales is starting to bottom out, just
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine inflation falls back dramatically into the BSP’s target range, thanks to food base effects
The return of transportation and communication deflation in Thailand should be short-lived
Soft start for Singaporean retail sales growth in Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s PMI slowed noticeably to 51.1 in August from the mid-to-high 51.0 range since May…
- …Vietnam's and Thailand’s PMIs saw the biggest declines from July, but Indonesia is the real worry.
- The deterioration in orders, due to BI’s excessively tight policy stance in Indonesia, is isolated for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
