- In one line: Support from cash stimulus starting to surface, if you squint.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We reckon Indonesian GDP growth fell ‘sharply’ to 4.7% in Q4, especially with payback due in stocks.
- Thailand’s full consumption data for Q4 show the first handout in September provided no real boost.
- The complete details of Vietnam’s hot Q4 GDP show that it was driven very narrowly by education.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Stable Q4 headline hides renewed deterioration in Philippine private consumption
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP growth missed expectations for a rise, with the headline steady at 5.2%…
- …Private domestic demand relapsed, and the quarterly lift from net trade isn’t much to celebrate.
- 2025 growth should stay largely subdued, at 5.4%, especially with investment likely to slow further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s GDP growth in Q4 was weaker than expected, at 1.8%, down from 4.2% in Q3…
- …Every component, except investment, was weaker quarter-to-quarter, especially net exports.
- The MAS finally pivoted; expect more easing to come, with core inflation under heavy pressure.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s key services PMI plunged to a 15-month low to start the year
A largely unwelcome consolidation of the Philippines’ trade deficit in late-2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s key services PMI has plunged to a 15-month low; the Q1 data so far point clearly to a GDP drop.
- We expect only a modest bounce in GDP growth in the Philippines in Q4, to 5.4%, from 5.2% in Q3.
- Thai exports stayed solid in Q4, but equally robust imports mute their lift, and downside risks prevail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A robust end to the year for Thai exports, despite flattening DM demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s retail sales look like they are picking up, as growth rose to 2.9% year-over-year in December.
- This is not the whole story; paradoxically, inflation continues to bolster the headline figure.
- Three typhoons, stubborn inflation and high credit costs have led to sluggish increases in volumes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s volatile gold imports corrected sharply in December, but their upward normalisation is intact.
- Total exports enjoyed a solid Q4, as the goods side revived, though services faltered heading into 2025.
- Net trade should hit Q4 GDP by 0.2pp, down from +1.5pp in Q3, due to adverse import base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Every major city in Taiwan is now “impossibly unaffordable”; the housing bubble is expanding.
- The central bank is trying to dampen demand, but overly aggressive policies may create a crisis...
- …The opposite, however, would increase the risk of a more severe housing-price crash down the line.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Gold imports correct sharply—again—but their broad trend is upwards.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the volatility, Indonesia's trade surplus is growing, slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised the universal consensus for a hold this month, lowering the BI rate to 5.75%…
- …The Board is right to tolerate the rupiah’s dollar- driven slump, amid its rising GDP growth worries.
- Ignore the December collapse in the trade surplus; smoothing out the noise yields a rising trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Expect a quieter year for Indian WPI inflation in 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI fell more comfortably within the RBI’s target range in December, clearing the way for a rate cut…
- …More downside is in store for food inflation, but the upward normalisation in the core isn’t over yet.
- The rupee’s weakness of late probably has the RBI’s blessing; it’s been kept stable for far too long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian sales growth should at least settle at a floor, shortly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
