Falling trade balance hides pick-up in Malaysian export momentum
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Ignore Malaysia’s smaller trade surplus in August, as the economy ramps up intermediate imports...
- ...The recovery in electronics exports continues to gather steam, powering manufacturing growth.
- The CBC sounds increasingly desperate in trying to rein in housing prices; an uphill task, in our view.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised yesterday by starting its easing cycle, hours ahead of the Fed’s own first cut.
- We’ve added a few more rate cuts to our outlook, and now see the BI rate ending 2025 at 4.75%.
- Blame a gold rush for India’s deficit blowout in August, which masked a few key silver linings.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Post-duty cut spike in gold imports hits the deficit hard, overshadowing a more confident recovery in real import demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Down to a four-month low, thanks to a broad-based deceleration.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A solid month of August for Indonesian exports, but downside risks linger
Recovery in Singapore's semiconductor exports cushions August headline
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth rose to a 19-month high in August, but this leap faces major downside risks.
- Singapore’s exports are still benefiting from the continued recovery in electronics demand.
- RBI Governor Das sounds less adamant that rate cuts require 4% long-run CPI; all eyes on October.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re keeping to our base case that the first cut from the RBI could come as soon as next month…
- …The bounce in CPI is unlikely to be as bad as the MPC feared, with food pressures truly subsiding.
- Headline IP growth looks stable on the surface, but momentum has clearly faded in recent months.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The improvement in food inflation is real; IP is losing steam, with support from consumer industries fading quickly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian retail sales growth remains skin-deep
A reassuring start to the third quarter for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian sales growth rose to a four-month high in July, but the underlying trends remain weak…
- …Consumer confidence is still subdued year-over- year, and this could soon hurt borrowing appetite.
- The mirror image in Philippine sales growth is just as misleading; support from jobs has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Electronics to the US for AI-related investment continue to support Taiwanese export growth…
- …This demand is likely to remain firm, but its strong performance hides weakness elsewhere.
- The July fall in Malaysian retail sales growth is more likely stabilisation, rather than real weakness.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: One trick, AI pony continues to support trade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Vietnamese exports are regaining momentum, thanks in large part to US demand
We’ve seen enough; downgrading our inflation forecasts for Vietnam
Actual retail sales growth in Vietnam remains in the log single-digit range
The latest slump in Philippine sales is starting to bottom out, just
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus barely moved in August , but exports to the US are flying…
- …We still expect GDP growth to slip modestly in Q3, with IP and retail sales clearly losing momentum.
- Philippine CPI returned quickly to the BSP's range in August; the door ’s ajar for a 50bp cut in October.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BNM is likely to stay on hold for the rest of 2024, faced with slowing CPI and a strong GDP outlook.
- Taiwanese CPI is set to benefit from slower imported inflation, but rental growth is still a worry.
- Singaporean retail sales growth is likely to remain weak for most of H2, barring friendly base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Sticky housing inflation keeps headline elevated.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
