PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 November 2025

Local private demand let the Indonesia economy down in Q3
The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in ASEAN manufacturing sentiment continues
Outright Thai deflation still has a number of months left
Softer food and firmer housing & utilities inflation in the Philippines offset each other

6 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The real stories behind another 5% GDP print for Indonesia in Q3

• GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
• …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
• Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.

4 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's GST collection in October indicates no post-cut pop in activity

• India’s real GST collection growth in October was flat, at best, showing no post-cut pop in spending.
• Recovering Chinese demand is helping to keep Indonesian export growth lofty, but big risks linger.
• We have raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Indonesia to 3.1%, in light of the firm October reads.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 November 2025

A deceptively quiet end to Q3 for Indonesian trade
Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast to just over 3%

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, Taiwan, Q3 2025

• In one line: Softer, but still beating expectations.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, August 2025

• In one line: ‘Others’ component goes from friend to foe; underlying growth is showing more stability.

3 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's GDP growth still strong, but we think it's finally peaked

• Taiwan’s GDP growth for Q3 b eat expectations, though it moderated slightly to 7.6% from 8.0%.
• Demand for AI hardware remains solid, but supply-side factors give no indication of strong growth…
• …Still, the AI boom could also be accelerating productivity gains and capital- deepening.

27 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariff hit still the main story in India's PMIs; GST relief nowhere to be seen

• India’s flash PMIs for October were a mixed bag, but it’s clear that the mid-2025 re-acceleration is over.
• Short-term leading indicators are still softening post-50% tariff, while long-term are average at best.
• The partial Q4 read chimes with our view that the economy is in the midst of a steep GDP slowdown.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 October 2025

The 2025 upswing in India's PMIs has stalled

October 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

SURPRISE HOLDS FROM THE BOT AND BI WON’T LAST

• …A SERIES OF EARLY-Q3 GDP UPSIDE SHOCKS IN ASEAN

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, September 2025

• In one line: Back in contraction.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, October 2025

• In one line: Another month, another surprise… this time for a pause, as the Board adopts wait-and-see.

24 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Years of poor real wage growth in Taiwan means no growth in retail

• Taiwan retail sales slipped back into contraction in September, as motor sales plunged yet again.
• Strong economic growth contrasts sharply with sluggish wages and weak household spending…
• …Nonetheless, exports should stand out in next week’s Q3 GDP data; we expect an acceleration.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 22 October 2025

Cost-push pressures are pushing up Malaysian inflation

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, September 2025

• In one line: A minor setback; positive momentum still rebuilding.

23 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A surprise hold, but BI isn't done; we still see a cut to 4.50% by year-end

• BI surprised again, but with a rate hold this time; we’re sticking to our end-2025 call of 4.50%.
• Malaysian inflation increased again, the third rise since the expansion of the sales and services tax.
• India’s full core IP data for Q3 show a solid bounce, but the GDP signal remains subdued.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 October 2025

Rebound in mining and quarrying boosts Malaysia’s Q3 GDP past expectations
Export growth accelerates to one of the fastest rates this year

20 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysia's Q3 GDP surprisingly rises, thanks to extractives

• Malaysia’s Q3 GDP growth shocked to the upside, powered by a rebound in mining and quarrying...
• ...But weak commodity exports suggest stockpiling or soaring domestic energy demand.
• Electrical and electronics exports are heating up, which could point to a rise in the Q4 GDP print.

17 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Fret more about India's plummeting US exports than its gold import leap

• The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
• Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
• …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, September 2025

• In one line: Blame yet another sudden spike in gold imports, though exports aren’t helping either.