Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia
- In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.
- In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.
Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines
THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID
- TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME
- Early signs suggest there could be a moderation in Malaysia’s Q4 GDP, but risks are to the upside.
- In the longer term, supply side factors are likely to weigh on growth, due to poor capital stock growth.
- That said, we see the government pulling numerous policy levers to raise this.
- In one line: Motor sales contract a lot less.
Thailand's bigger-than-expected October deficit masks resurgent US exports
Shaping up to be a very anti-climatic Q4 for India
Malaysia’s recent inflation spike could be over
- India’s PMIs are still broadly losing steam heading into 2026, pointing to ‘just’ 6.4% Q4 GDP growth…
- …The future output indices in both PMIs are tanking, pouring cold water over a mid-2026 recovery.
- Malaysian inflation eased to 1.3% in October after months of rise s; we think food inflation will return.
- In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
The AI tide is finally lifting Malaysian exports
- BI stood pat yesterday, as widely expected; we see one final cut in December and RRR easing in 2026.
- Singaporean export growth leapt unexpectedly in October, but leading indicators remain very soft.
- Malaysian exports are finally benefiting from the AI boom, as they surged by 15.7% in October.
- Surging gold imports are only part of the historic blow-out in India’s trade deficit in October…
- …Real import demand looks to be rocketing too, though INR depreciation should keep this in check.
- Exports weren’t as weak as their headline plunge suggests, but non-US demand is now wobbling.
- In one line: Gold imports are still surging, but real import demand has also gone up a gear.
- GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
- …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
- We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.
Destocking largely to blame for Thailand's Q3 GDP miss
Upstream price pressures in India remain soft on all fronts
- Vietnam has formally approved a 10% GDP growth target for 2026, which would be a record result…
- …Flying M2 growth means this is within reach, but it seems destined to correct sharply in the near term.
- Our final forecast for India’s Q3 GDP sees growth slowing markedly to 6.8%, from 7.8% in Q2.
