Finally seeing signs of US front-loading in Vietnamese exports, Tet noise aside
Ignore the official slip, sales growth strengthened in February
Food inflation noesdives with the help of residual Tet noise
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s first trade deficit since mid-2022 was due partly to Tet noise, masking a spike in US exports…
- …Payback will eventually follow the front-loading of US demand; FDI is feeling the tariff uncertainty.
- The soft February CPI should be all the BSP needs to resume rate cuts at its next meeting in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Door now wide open for the BSP to resume easing in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Revisions to Taiwan’s GDP show that Q4 growth, at 2.9%, exceeded initial expectations.
- Consumption has been cooling from its post-Covid highs and is around its pre-pandemic average…
- …The 2025 trajectory for this component, using Google Trends searches, looks unimpressive.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
A 7-month high for ASEAN’s PMI, but no clear signs of US front-loading, yet
A surprising—though likely temporary—dip into outright deflation in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI leapt suddenly in February to a seven-month high of 51.5…
- …But it seems to have been flattered by residual seasonality, and pockets of weakness still persist.
- The descent into outright deflation in Indonesia should be short-lived, as the power relief expires.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A trade- and consumption-driven bounce; the economy is still operating below potential.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q4 GDP print was exactly in line wit expectations, at 6.2%, rebounding from 5.6%…
- …Consumption, mainly rural, continues to find its feet, while exports—especially services—are flying.
- The Philippines’ structural RRR cuts are likely over, but they are no substitute for lower TRR rates.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
RBI RATE CUTS FINALLY HERE; EXPECT 2 MORE IN Q2
- …THAI GROWTH HAS LIKELY PEAKED, PROMPTING A BOT CUT
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT surprised this month, resuming its easing with a 25bp cut, against the consensus for a hold…
- …We expect one—final—cut in Q2, as rising GDP growth and inflation should shortly reverse course.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth jumped in January, but the underlying story remains weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indian services wake up from its slumber, but a Q1 GDP slowdown is still in play
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam has officially raised its 2025 GDP growth target to 8%; its doable if M2 doesn’t fall too fast…
- …But interest rates are clearly on an uptrend, and the dark cloud of NPLs is still hanging over banks.
- We expect growth in India to bounce to 6% in Q4, but most of this will come from technicalities.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit on both sides of the balance.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand disappointed, increasing modestly to 3.2% in Q4, from 3.0% in Q3…
- …Helpful import base effects did a lot of the heavy lifting; ‘robust’ export momentum remains fragile.
- Domestic demand was nowhere to be seen; we still expect a small GDP growth dip in 2025, to 2.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
