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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

18 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy's budget deficit will fall less than Rome expects

  • The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed… 
  • ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts. 
  • A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, July 2024

In one line: A hefty fall; set for a sixth quarter-on-quarter decline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Industry in Spain heads for recession, as in the rest of the EZ

  • Italian industry remains in recession in Q3, in line with its German counterpart… 
  • ...Spanish industry is now joining the recession party, though it is still faring better than elsewhere. 
  • The outlook for EZ industry remains bleak, especially given signs of still-weak import demand from China.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q2 2024

In one line: Revised down; held back by consumption and investment.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, Germany, July

In one line: Industry is unlikely to recover until the external picture improves.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor German industrial output fell in July; ignore EZ retail data for now

  • July’s German factory orders increase was driven by major orders; jump in June’s core orders was a blip. 
  • German industrial turnover figures point to output data today coming in well below consensus. 
  • EZ retail sales are still being compiled without German figures and cannot be relied upon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, August

In one line: GDP growth is unlikely to slow in Q3, as the PMI suggests.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss GDP growth picks up, but inflation falls; SNB will cut again

  • Net trade drove the increase in Swiss GDP in Q2, while investment held it back.
  • Growth will slow in Q3 but pick up again in Q4, such that GDP rises by 1.2% in 2024 the same as in 2023.
  • Inflation was a touch higher than we expected in August, but the SNB will still cut twice more this year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, August 2024

In one line: Stubborn domestic inflation prevents bigger decline. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, August 2024

In one line: Consistent with continued recession in industry, despite upward revision. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, August 2024

In one line: Rising services sentiment boosts the headline aggregate index.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, August

In one line:  Within a touch of the ECB’s target; September’s rate cut is a go

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,