In one line: Construction downturn intensifies midway through Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Italian growth fared better than previously thought in Q4, and should now pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now.
- April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis.
- The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Another data point in favour of ECB hawks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany has fired a fiscal bazooka, which won’t go unnoticed by the ECB today.
- Swiss inflation fell further in February, to 0.3%; we think this is a trough, for now.
- We expect the SNB to cut by 25bp later this month, marking the final reduction in this easing cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s first defence package contains only a small element of joint loans; more will be needed soon.
- EZ unemployment remains pinned at a record low, though we think it will start rising soon, slowly.
- Markets see tariff risks as dovish for ECB policy, but the economic data are pulling in the other direction.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with another 0.5% q/q increase in GDP in Q1; price pressures rising.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rates by 25bp, but the argument for further easing is now much tougher.
- February inflation data mean the ECB’s forecast for Q2 inflation at 2.1% is now a Hail Mary.
- ECB doves will focus on downside risks to growth and employment from tariffs; they have a point.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with a below-consensus EZ print on Monday.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation expectations ease back; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with the national CPI undershooting the consensus.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Inflation pulled lower by energy, but the core softened too; setback in spending after a strong finish to 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone headline and core inflation likely undershot the consensus in February.
- Today’s data should be the first clear sign that EZ services inflation is now falling, from a trend of 4%.
- EZ consumers’ spending on goods saw a slow start to 2025, but don’t write off Q1 just yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Business sentiment eases despite improvement in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Upturns in real M1 growth and credit impulse continue.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
