EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2024

In one line: Subdued. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Back in action!

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK

1 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A 50bp ECB rate cut in December drifts further into oblivion

• A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December. 
• Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too. 
• The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Unemployment and State CPIs, Germany, Q3-24/October

In one line: Recession averted (again), labour market weakness continues and upside risks to October inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2024

In one line:  Disappointing; was the hit from construction investment bigger than we thought? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP & Inflation, Spain, Q3/October 2024

In one line: Stellar again; inflation increase driven by energy base effects

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Q3, France

In one line: Decent, but nothing to write home about ex-Olympic boost.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Nothing in Q3 GDP to spook the ECB into a 50bp cut in December

• EZ GDP rose more than we and the ECB had expected in Q3, and growth picked up from Q2. 
• France, Spain and Germany all contributed positively, while GDP stagnated in Italy. 
• Advance CPI data in Germany and Spain point to upside risks to EZ core inflation today.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November 2024

In one line: Continuing to rise, as expected. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November

In one line: Continuing to rise, as expected. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor What should investors expect from the next few days' EZ data deluge?

• We look for EZ GDP growth at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, slightly above the consensus, 0.2%.
• Today’s early-October inflation data in Germany and Spain will point to a rebound in the EZ HICP. 
• An upward revision to EZ unemployment is the main dovish risk to rates this week.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Trump's 10% tariff would barely make a dent in EZ GDP

• Donald Trump has threatened a 10% tariff on goods imported to the US, if he becomes president. 
• Our analysis suggests the hit to EZ GDP from a blanket 10% tariff would be limited… 
• ...The GDP hit would be smaller if the EU retaliates but bigger if a US-China trade war escalates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO/ISTAT Business Sentiment, Germany/Italy, October

In one line: Supporting our view Germany will avoid recession this year but pointing to downside risks in Italy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply & CES, EZ, September 2024

In one line: A good mix.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, October 2024

In one line: The trend is still rising.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 October 2024 EZ Monitor Reasons to be cheerful about the outlook for the EZ economy

• Money supply and lending growth picked up further at the end of Q3, a good sign for EZ GDP growth.
• ECB surveyed inflation expectations dropped in September but will likely rebound in Q4.
• The IFO survey in Germany improved marginally in October, but the IESI in Italy stumbled.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone