- Swiss inflation fell below 1% in September for the first time since 2021.
- Inflation averaged 1.1% in Q3, in line with the SNB’s call, but will fall further than the Bank expects in Q4.
- The door is wide open for further rate cuts; the SNB could take its key policy rate close to zero.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone unemployment rate held at 6.4% in September and is likely to remain steady for now.
- The ECB also sees a broadly unchanged unemployment rate over the coming quarters.
- A still-tight labour market will prevent neither a slowdown in wage growth nor more ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recession in EZ industry rumbles on.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation in the EZ fell below the ECB’s target in September for the first time since 2021.
- Deeper energy deflation was the main drag, but core inflation also eased a touch.
- We look for the ECB to cut twice more this year, by 25bp in both October and December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German HICP inflation falls below 2% for the first time since March 2021; it will increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German HICP inflation is now below 2% for the first time since March 2021.
- As of September Italian inflation has been below 2% for a year, though it slid less than we thought.
- EZ inflation still likely fell to below the ECB’s target; today’s data will show it coming in at 1.8%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German inflation likely fell in line with consensus.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down, like the PMI, and dovish on inflation and wages.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jobless claims in Germany rise again; EZ inflation expectations cool further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB has lowered its inflation forecasts towards our estimates, blaming a stronger CHF.
- It is unhappy with EURCHF and uncomfortable with its new end-of-horizon inflation call.
- We thought another cut would come in December, and we now also think it will trim rates in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation has been lower than the SNB expected in Q3; it will cut its inflation forecasts this week…
- ...Thomas Jordan will go out with a bang, cutting rates for the fifth time as SNB Chairman.
- We look for at least one more cut, in December; risks are tilted towards less easing than we expect.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boost from the Olympics in August disappeared in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed…
- ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts.
- A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A hefty fall; set for a sixth quarter-on-quarter decline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
