- Political uncertainty weighed on business sentiment in France in December…
- ...Politically-driven sentiment moves don’t usually translate into hard data, but growth will still slow.
- Services trade figures in the EZ current account point to downside risk to our EZ net trade call in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November, to 2.2%—rather than 2.3%—from 2.0%.
- It will increase further in December, and risks to our call for a 2.5% print are to the upside.
- The headline will fall in early 2025, allowing the ECB to cut rates further, less than markets expect though.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction escaped recession in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November; another rise this month is likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The IFO BCI sank in December, pointing to downside risk to our call for German GDP to stagnate in Q4.
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, perked up, in line with rising equities.
- EZ trade took a hit in October; front-loading ahead of higher tariffs will prevent a Q4 drag from net trade.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German investor sentiment recovers; EZ goods trade takes a hit in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sinking to its lowest since May 2020, and the first Covid lockdowns.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMIs in December were still a dovish signal for ECB policymakers…
- ...and the ECB President made it clear further easing was on the way in her speech in Lithuania…
- ...But she failed in her promise to clarify the Bank’s level of restrictiveness.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Growth will still slow, despite increase in PMI in December; rising price indices still point to downside risks for inflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still no sign of a pick up in new orders in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The recession in industry continued in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Martin Schlegel comes out swinging with jumbo cut at his first meeting as SNB Chairman.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Strong employment growth and a falling saving rate helped Spain outperform in 2024...
- ...These will be the reasons why Spanish GDP growth outpaces the rest of the big four again in 2025.
- Key risks to the outlook include political uncertainty and the crackdown on tourist appartments.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The near-two-year-long recession in Italian industry is not over yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services inflation will bring the headline down soon, but another increase in December is a decent bet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Politics weigh on investor sentiment at year end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down but will likely recover to year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Falling at the start of Q4; will risk of higher US trade tariffs lead to a temporary gain?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
