- Energy inflation remains on track for a big fall in coming months, but it will rebound into year-end.
- EZ headline inflation will fall to within touching distance of 2% in August, but will snap back in Q4.
- Swiss GDP outpaced the Eurozone average in Q2, as industry fared better than we anticipated.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italy’s new wealth tax on foreign income will help public finances but won’t balance the books…
- ...Spending needs to come down, and significantly, to get Italy away from a near 6% deficit this year.
- As expected, the SNB intervened to stem the rise in the franc last week; more CHF sales will be needed.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Inflation will drop back sharply this month.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss industry likely had another tough quarter in Q2 and services turnover data to May disappoint.
- We doubt GDP fell, however, as implied by the PMI; it has underestimated growth since Q4 2022.
- We have pencilled in zero growth in Switzerland in Q2, after a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sales fell, but German data are missing again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House prices in Spain are currently higher than during the house price bubble in 2005-to-2008…
- ...But the current increase doesn’t look unsustainable and household finances are sound.
- We see little scope for a sharp correction in house prices in the coming quarters in Spain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still suggesting private sector activity stalled at the start of Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rising in June, as in France and Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stubborn domestic inflation means headline held steady.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: We think the manufacturing PMI is too downbeat, even after the upward revision.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Further increases in jobless claims are on the horizon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A smaller q/q increase than we thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Continuing to outperform; inflation fell further than expected in July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Edging down, in line with deteriorating overall business sentiment in France and Germany
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still pointing to an improvement in growth, in contrast to the business surveys.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain…
- ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed.
- So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
