- The Eurozone unemployment rate held at 6.4% in September and is likely to remain steady for now.
- The ECB also sees a broadly unchanged unemployment rate over the coming quarters.
- A still-tight labour market will prevent neither a slowdown in wage growth nor more ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recession in EZ industry rumbles on.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation in the EZ fell below the ECB’s target in September for the first time since 2021.
- Deeper energy deflation was the main drag, but core inflation also eased a touch.
- We look for the ECB to cut twice more this year, by 25bp in both October and December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German HICP inflation falls below 2% for the first time since March 2021; it will increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German HICP inflation is now below 2% for the first time since March 2021.
- As of September Italian inflation has been below 2% for a year, though it slid less than we thought.
- EZ inflation still likely fell to below the ECB’s target; today’s data will show it coming in at 1.8%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German inflation likely fell in line with consensus.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down, like the PMI, and dovish on inflation and wages.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jobless claims in Germany rise again; EZ inflation expectations cool further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: An October cut is now fully priced, and for good reason.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- French and Spanish inflation data lend support to ECB doves pushing for an October cut...
- ...But beware of whiplash in market pricing, if the German and Italian data don’t play ball.
- French consumer spending isn’t going anywhere in Q2; German jobless claims are still rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but where is the spending growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB has lowered its inflation forecasts towards our estimates, blaming a stronger CHF.
- It is unhappy with EURCHF and uncomfortable with its new end-of-horizon inflation call.
- We thought another cut would come in December, and we now also think it will trim rates in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Likely boosted by rapidly falling inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- French households celebrate falling inflation, but confidence-sapping tax hikes loom on the horizon.
- France’s deficit will hit 6% of GDP soon without corrective action; markets won’t let that slide.
- Spending cuts alone won’t reduce the deficit in France, tax hikes will be needed too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
