In one line: Dragged lower by a crash in exports.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Household demand for credit rose, and the fall in firms’ demand decelerated in Q2…
- ...Banks tightened standards at a slower pace than in past quarters, supporting lending growth…
- ...The subsequent pick-up in GDP growth will be gradual, however; not something for the ECB to fear.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ industry likely came out of recession in Q2, by the skin of its teeth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Monthly hard data for Italy have been better than expected; our new nowcast points to faster growth…
- ...but business surveys suggest GDP growth is unlikely to budge from Q1’s 0.3%.
- Advance numbers suggest that EZ negotiated wage growth slowed in Q2, despite firmer Indeed data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
- ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates.
- We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still consistent with a rebound in the PMI, despite falling.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Goods spending is not benefitting from the recovery in real incomes, yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Upward revision doesn’t change picture of cooling output growth in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB President Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone in her Sintra speeches…
- ...But the main message from ECB speakers is that more rate cuts are on the way, data permitting.
- Overall, the Sintra conference left no mark on market-based and consensus rate expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A third straight fall led by a drop in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Probably a blip in an otherwise uptrend.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Revisions show that Spanish GDP rose by 0.8% on the quarter in Q1, more than previously thought.
- More of the same is likely in coming quarters; survey and hard data are positive, especially in services.
- Spain’s GDP will likely leap by 2.8% this year, in contrast to 0.8% in the Eurozone as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Slower but still decent growth and price pressures are easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
- ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
- expect.
The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Q1 wasn’t as good as previously thought, and output will fall back in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
