Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

25 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Thomas Jordan to end his stint as SNB Chairman with another cut

  • Inflation has been lower than the SNB expected in Q3; it will cut its inflation forecasts this week… 
  • ...Thomas Jordan will go out with a bang, cutting rates for the fifth time as SNB Chairman. 
  • We look for at least one more cut, in December; risks are tilted towards less easing than we expect.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame

  • The EZ PMIs plunged in September, as the boost from the Summer Olympics ended. 
  • Our EZ Nowcast for Q3 GDP looks ugly, but we think it is misleadingly pessimistic at this point. 
  • The ECB will consider an October rate cut if non-energy goods inflation stays subdued in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, September

In one line:  Boost from the Olympics in August disappeared in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 September 2024 EZ Monitor INSEE business survey data stabilising, but still weak overall

  • INSEE survey data show further signs of stabilisation in September but remain soft overall.
  • The Summer Olympics boosted Q3 GDP growth in France, but a payback looms in Q4.
  • We look for a big fall in the EZ PMIs today as the Olympics boost to French services reaches an end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, September 2024

In one line: Better, but still consistent with weak growth in domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, July 2024

In one line: Pushed down by a reversal in the primary income balance.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor The Fed goes big, but the ECB will stay focused on domestic data

  • The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
  • …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
  • The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, July 2024

In one line: Q3 carry-over looks o.k., but survey data remains depressed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, August 2024

In one line: Services inflation revised down marginally; headline to fall further in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Core goods inflation will determine the ECB's move in October

  • Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year. 
  • Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4. 
  • An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy's budget deficit will fall less than Rome expects

  • The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed… 
  • ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts. 
  • A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance & Labour Costs, EZ, July/Q2

In one line: EZ trade pulled lower by imports in July; hourly labour cost growth remained elevated in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Draghi's EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules

  • Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations. 
  • We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation. 
  • EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, August 2024

In one line: Held down by falling energy inflation; the core firmed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 September 2024 EZ Monitor ECB in a decent position ahead of tricky Q4 decisions

  • One more ECB rate cut this year is a good baseline, but the probability of two has increased.
  • Surveys point to downside risks for core inflation in France, but we still look for a rebound in Q4.
  • The misery in EZ manufacturing continued at the start of Q3, despite a boost from Ireland.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,