- Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown.
- It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though.
- French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent GDP data support investor sentiment but it remains subdued.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Little in the GDP data to support an accelerated ECB easing cycle.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointing; was the hit from construction investment bigger than we thought?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stellar again; inflation increase driven by energy base effects
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for EZ GDP growth at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, slightly above the consensus, 0.2%.
- Today’s early-October inflation data in Germany and Spain will point to a rebound in the EZ HICP.
- An upward revision to EZ unemployment is the main dovish risk to rates this week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Donald Trump has threatened a 10% tariff on goods imported to the US, if he becomes president.
- Our analysis suggests the hit to EZ GDP from a blanket 10% tariff would be limited…
- ...The GDP hit would be smaller if the EU retaliates but bigger if a US-China trade war escalates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Supporting our view Germany will avoid recession this year but pointing to downside risks in Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Barely budging fuelling market expectations for faster ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down, in line with our call that French GDP will slow again in Q4 after an Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMI barely budged in October and is consistent with slower GDP growth in Q4…
- ...But we think growth will remain solid despite agreeing with the PMI about a slowdown in France.
- Markets are trying to pull the ECB towards a 50bp rate cut in December; we still see 25bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italy’s MTFS plan suggests it is doing everything right, complying with new EU rules in quick order…
- ...This is because Rome is assuming potential growth of almost 1%, a dream scenario for Italy…
- ...What’s more, this year’s budget will be bigger than Rome thinks, making 2025 more difficult.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction went back into recession in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ trade balance pulled lower by rising imports, again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone