- A fall in investment will be the main driver of the incoming recession in the Eurozone.
- Germany will bear the brunt of the slowdown, with a 0.6% fall in GDP across Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and trade diversion are the main upside risks to growth relative to our new baseline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Slower growth, coupled with a stronger CHF and lower oil prices, will keep Swiss inflation down.
- The SNB is likely to cut once more; we now expect the easing cycle to end in June.
- EZ house prices rose 4.2% last year and will increase again this year, as lower interest rates fuel demand.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ is now likely entering a technical recession; the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 2.00% by June.
- Markets are pricing-in too dovish an outcome for the ECB; the bank will struggle to push rates below 2%.
- The economy is facing the trade shock in decent shape and fiscal stimulus still pose upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German industry likely had a great Q1, but what awaits in Q2?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Up despite being held back by German weakness.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The markets’ verdict is clear; trade uncertainty is a disinflationary shock, but we’re not convinced.
- We now think the ECB will cut its policy rate later this month, by 25bp, for a terminal rate of 2.25%.
- A high export ratio for EZ industry means higher US tariffs are a risk; construction is looking better.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Look through the noise to see a relatively modest US tariff package for the EU, all things considered.
- An ECB rate cut later this month is now fully priced in, but we still think the Bank will hold fire.
- The SNB can hold off from further rate cuts for now, despite the likely hit to growth from the US tariff hike.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position.
- A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp.
- EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We still think the data support the idea of an ECB pause in April, but what will happen on tariffs today?
- EZ core inflation fell nicely in March, but it will snap back in April as Easter effects reverse.
- Services activity in Switzerland is coming off the boil at the start of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: We now see the March EZ HICP up by 0.7% m/m, and by 2.2% y/y.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
- German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
