Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Inflation in the Eurozone was little moved in June; it will probably hold steady in July.
- Upside risks from services and energy now loom for EZ inflation but we think September’s rate cut is safe.
- Our forecasts point to a Q4 rebound in core inflation; will the ECB look through this and cut in December?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Household demand for credit rose, and the fall in firms’ demand decelerated in Q2…
- ...Banks tightened standards at a slower pace than in past quarters, supporting lending growth…
- ...The subsequent pick-up in GDP growth will be gradual, however; not something for the ECB to fear.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will likely open the door to further easing this week, teeing up a second rate cut, in September.
- Market expectations are converging on three cuts between now and March; the ECB is fine with this.
- One week ahead of the EZ Q2 GDP data, Nowcast models are subdued; we don’t buy them.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Monthly hard data for Italy have been better than expected; our new nowcast points to faster growth…
- ...but business surveys suggest GDP growth is unlikely to budge from Q1’s 0.3%.
- Advance numbers suggest that EZ negotiated wage growth slowed in Q2, despite firmer Indeed data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
- The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC.
- Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
- ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates.
- We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on.
- The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked.
- Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
- The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
- The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
- We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
- The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB President Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone in her Sintra speeches…
- ...But the main message from ECB speakers is that more rate cuts are on the way, data permitting.
- Overall, the Sintra conference left no mark on market-based and consensus rate expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on.
- Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now.
- Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
- Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
- German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the EZ likely fell in June, by 0.1pp to 2.5%; all set for a dovish message from Sintra this week.
- Forecast upgrades in Spain and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2.
- German unemployment hit a new post-Covid high in June and likely will rise a bit further in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data point to continued upside for the PMI, which fell in June; will it rebound?
- Credit figures are consistent with rising consumers’ spending and a rebound in investment soon.
- The first June surveys for Italy and Spain suggest downside risk in the former but strength in the latter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a parliament split down the middle in France, but the second-round vote is a wildcard.
- RN’s and NFP’s economic plans will anger bond markets and the EU; Mr. Macron will likely welcome this.
- Survey data so far point to only a modest hit to sentiment in France from rising political uncertainty.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Revisions show that Spanish GDP rose by 0.8% on the quarter in Q1, more than previously thought.
- More of the same is likely in coming quarters; survey and hard data are positive, especially in services.
- Spain’s GDP will likely leap by 2.8% this year, in contrast to 0.8% in the Eurozone as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German surveys turned south in June, but don’t write off the idea of a rebound in growth just yet.
- Early hard data suggest GDP rose again in Q2, but a fall in construction will weigh on growth.
- Leading indicators tentatively hint at a bottom in German investment, but the rebound will be slow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
- ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
- expect.
The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp.
- France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room.
- Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone was uncomfortably hot in May, but 2% over the summer is still a good bet.
- Surveys signal downward risks for services inflation, but sports events are upside risks over the summer.
- We think the ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in September, December and March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
