Global Publications
Below is a list of our Global Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- US - Liberation Day to reduce uncertainty, but at what inflation cost?
- EUROZONE - Data signal an ECB pause in April, ‘Liberation Day’ permitting
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - The BoJ to focus on tariff impact, as food inflation builds again
- EM ASIA - Unsurprisingly, Taiwan’s central bank continues to hold rates
- LATAM - Tough days for Banxico demand bold monetary policy action
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The FOMC’s fears of rising unemployment will be borne out
- EUROZONE - This is the end of the road for the SNB’s easing cycle
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands pat in March on external trade policy considerations
- EM ASIA - JCI sell-off putting more pressure on BI to cut sooner rather than later
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM tightens policy again but will slow the pace in May
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Consumers’ confidence overstates the slowdown now underway
- EUROZONE - SNB has found the end of the rainbow: easing cycle finishes here
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - China looking in somewhat better shape ahead of tariff hikes
- EM ASIA - RBI facing a smoother road to an April cut; food CPI is going nowhere
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospect
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - February payroll growth was solid, but a slowdown looms this spring
- EUROZONE - A look on the bright side for GDP growth in the Eurozone
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - Premier Li announces step-up in fiscal support; still room for more
- EM ASIA - Ignore Vietnam’s first trade deficit in years; US tariff front-running is here
- LATAM - Trade, inflation and economic activity risks under Trump 2.0
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - What do new tariffs mean for consumer prices?
- EUROZONE - ECB hawks have a strong case for arguing this week’s cut is the last
- UK - Retail sales recovering after their pre-Budget stumble
- CHINA+ - Two Sessions preview: staying the course, readying stimulus ammo
- EM ASIA - India’s Q4 GDP bounce confirmed, on consumption and exports
- LATAM - Argentina’s economy rebounding under Mr. Milei’s leadership
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - How seriously should we take the PMI’s slowdown signal?
- EUROZONE - The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right
- UK - Increased NICs will be manageable for firms and consumers
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - Not long until BI eases again, especially given Prabowo’s cuts
- LATAM - Mexico’s economic outlook worsens amid external and domestic risks
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core PCE inflation fell in January; further progress to come
- EUROZONE - A truce in Ukraine is no panacea for still-elevated EZ energy prices
- UK - UK growth on the path to some recovery in Q1
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - BSP’s surprise pause won’t last long; real rates still way too high
- LATAM - Temporary disinflation in Brazil; Mexico’s industrial sector woes
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium
- UK - Focus on hawkish forecasts rather than two votes for a 50bp cut
- CHINA+ - China’s holiday spending is robust, but it won’t last
- EM ASIA - Malhotra’s RBI debut was both no shock and unexpectedly reassuring
- LATAM - Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - A growth slowdown looms, as the saving rate rebounds
- EUROZONE - The ECB can’t dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer
- UK - MPC preview: 25bp cut, guiding to three-to-four reductions in 2025
- CHINA+ - DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors
- EM ASIA - New headwinds amid green shoots; PH won’t do much better in 2025
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The idea of a post-election “vibes” shift is unsupported by surveys
- EUROZONE - Our highlights in a busy week: 25bp ECB cut and soft Q4 GDP data
- UK - Speaking less but saying more; MPC speech frequency declining
- CHINA+ - Surprise fall in China’s PMIs signals recovery is far from assured
- EM ASIA - India’s January PMIs a reality check for a still-rosy consensus
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil; Mexico’s recovery falters
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core inflation still likely to be lower by year-end in most tariff scenarios
- EUROZONE - The outlook for EZ inflation in Q1; a hot headline, but a soft core?
- UK - Ignore the December inflation drop; it’s still heading above 3% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s stimulus policies worked in Q4, but recovery won’t be easy
- EM ASIA - BI shrugs off IDR slump and starts 2025 with shock cut; a good move
- LATAM - Will headwinds from a protectionist US hurt the Mexican economy?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payrolls are too noisy for December’s data to convincing signal an upturn
- EUROZONE - Will dovish Q1 inflation help bruised and battered EZ bonds?
- UK - GDP likely rebounded by 0.2% month-to-month in November
- CHINA+ - All eyes on China’s likely response to President Trump’s opening salvo
- EM ASIA - Don’t put much stock into India’s 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December
- EUROZONE - All set for another ‘gradualist’ 25bp rate cut from the ECB
- UK - Forecast review: slow growth and fast inflation to keep MPC cautious
- CHINA+ - Korean business sentiment dives due to political crisis; trade risks rise
- EM ASIA - A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI
- LATAM - Kicking off 2025 with monetary policy and economic challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - How expansionary will fiscal policy really be under President Trump?
- EUROZONE - November PMIs won’t be enough for a 50bp cut in December
- UK - Wage growth will exceed the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - Japan’s core inflation is steady, despite headline dip in subsidies
- EM ASIA - BI stays on hold, spooked by Trump, but easing is far from over
- LATAM - Banxico faces challenges despite falling inflation and weak demand
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The Fed would have to react to Trump’s trade tariffs this time
- EUROZONE - A Trump win would push EURUSD down, and yields up, on the day
- UK - Ms. Reeves torches Governor Bailey’s plans for rapid rate cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s PMIs point to stimulus gradually gaining purchase
- EM ASIA - The soft patch in ASEAN manufacturing continues
- LATAM - Mexico’s economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
