- In one line: The improvement in food inflation is real; IP is losing steam, with support from consumer industries fading quickly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: As expected; plenty to talk about on the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Weak job gains require rapid easing, but the Fed isn’t sensing the urgency
- EUROZONE - All set for a second 25bp rate cut from the ECB on Thursday
- UK - More short-term borrowing, only partially offset by tax hikes
- CHINA+ - Insipid core consumer inflation confirms sorry demand picture
- EM ASIA - BNM likely to enjoy a ‘Goldilocks’ moment, with a pause until 2025
- LATAM - Inflation moderates in Mexico, but political uncertainty looms large
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Finally falling at the headline level, but politics now a key risk.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Decisively less hawkish on inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
In one line: GDP growth is unlikely to slow in Q3, as the PMI suggests.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Indonesia’s PMI is going from bad to worse, hitting the headline.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Rapid Fed easing warranted despite solid consumer momentum
- EUROZONE - Italian growth will improve, despite construction capex dwindling
- UK- UK still vulnerable to energy price shocks
- CHINA+ - China’s aging housing stock another reason for people to save
- EM ASIA - Rural consumption reviving, but India’s GDP slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s labour market starting to show signs of moderation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: GDP growth surges in Q2 amid strong labour market.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Consistent with continued recession in industry, despite upward revision.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Steady headline masks continued food disinflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Within a touch of the ECB’s target; September’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Dovish pivot complete; the Fed now has serious catching-up to do
- EUROZONE - Olympic boost to the EZ PMIs, and a big drop in Q2 wage growth
- UK- Higher output, lower inflation; MPC will still be wary of labour demand
- CHINA+ - China’s consumption struggles amid low confidence and policy challenges
- EM ASIA - BoT held, again, but is becoming anxious about domestic demand
- LATAM - COPOM’s cautious stance amid inflation risks and economic threats
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services boosted by the Olympics; manufacturing is sinking without a trace.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Still sticking to our call for Q4 easing, but a September move can’t be ruled out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Still believe that cuts are just around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
