Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
- Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
- …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
- Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
- Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector is struggling, as the labour market continues to defy expectations.
- The COPOM faces tough decisions amid rising inflation and political pressure from President Lula.
- Fiscal concerns are mounting as the budget deficit is deepening, complicating monetary policy.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
- Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
- Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
- We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A mixed performance, with activity struggling, but the job market remains resilient for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, but rate cuts will resume soon, assuming the MXN stabilises.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico held rates at 11% amid the MXN sell-off and rising inflation but the split vote signals a dovish shift.
- Policymakers hinted at future easing, as the economy weakens and inflation falls.
- The resilient labour market could face headwinds if economic weakness persists.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS RESILIENT...
- ...BUT CHALLENGES PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLICY FRONT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: In line with expectations despite political noise and floods.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation remains under control in June, but the COPOM is still cautious given the uncertainty.
- Argentina’s GDP plunged in Q1 amid Mr. Milei’s structural adjustments to bring the economy back on track.
- His government faces economic challenges despite high approval and efforts to curb inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economic activity rebounded in April, but growth momentum likely will be sluggish in H2.
- Challenges persist amid political and policy uncertainty—hindering investment—and fiscal pressures.
- The fiscal backdrop, as outlined in the MTFF, presents a complex picture of challenges and commitments.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s inflation uptick in June signals caution from Banxico; the next rate cut is likely delayed to August.
- Rising non-core inflation and MXN volatility challenge Banxico’s monetary policy stance.
- Brazil’s foreign investment inflows show resilience despite economic challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy struggled in April amid headwinds; high rates and political uncertainty are threats.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices indicate a balance between ideological allies and technocratic expertise.
- Concerns about power concentration are valid, but Ms. Sheinbaum is not merely AMLO’s puppet.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid start to Q2 following a poor Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In on line: A hawkish hold, prioritising inflation anchoring, and restoring credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM delivered a hawkish hold, prioritising anchoring inflation, and restoring credibility.
- Chile’s central bank continued gradual rate cuts amid inflation concerns and improving economic activity.
- Both Banks will face an improved global scenario by year-end, broadening their policy manoeuvrability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
