Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- The broad-based rise in Brazil’s industrial output in August offers short-term relief, as the risks persist.
- Investment and external demand remain major drags; high interest rates are hurting.
- Weak confidence and US trade frictions will likely continue to weigh on industry.
- Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
- Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
- Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.
LATAM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS POLICY STAYS RESTRICTIVE…
- …DISINFLATION ADVANCES, BUT CORE PRESSURES CLOUD OUTLOOK
- Brazilian Real — Gains fade after early rally
- Mexican Peso — Resilient, but facing resistance
- Argentinian Peso — Volatility as political noise builds
- Economic activity in Argentina contracts again as fiscal constraints and political instability weigh…
- …The US backstop boosts stability, but the October mid-term elections will test the credibility of reforms.
- A resilient labour market in Brazil masks cooling momentum, with job creation fading.
- Import growth is far outpacing exports in Brazil, as the strong BRL and Chinese goods shift trade flows.
- High reserves and slowing demand are buffers, but financing gaps leave Brazil vulnerable to shocks.
- Mexico’s labour market is weakening, with formal job creation stalling, wages rising and capex subdued.
- Brazil’s inflation is rising modestly in September, reinforcing BCB’s cautious stance.
- BCB’s report highlighted sticky services inflation, a positive output gap, and delayed rate normalisation.
- Banxico continues its cautious easing as inflation softens, but fragile growth and external risks persist.
- Mexico’s industrial and services activity fell sharply in July, confirming fragile momentum ahead in H2.
- Retail sales show modest resilience, but tight credit and a weakening job market weigh on consumption.
- US support is stabilising the Argentinian peso for the moment, but structural fragilities still loom.
- Core services inflation remains sticky in Mexico, keeping Banxico’s easing gradual.
- External drivers support activity, while domestic demand and capex continue to struggle.
- Fiscal prudence and stable MXN provide cover for gradual easing, but trade risks remain elevated.
- Copom holds the Selic rate steady, signalling vigilance, but hinting peak rates are now behind us.
- A firmer BRL and easing inflation expectations reinforce the case for gradual cuts from December.
- Recovery stalls in Argentina as demand weakens, credit fades, and recession risks rise.
- Brazil — Noise driven by US tariffs and Bolsonaro fallout
- Mexico — Sovereignty, trade and security
- Colombia — Tensions rise ahead of 2026 vote
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in July, with manufacturing and construction the key drags.
- Tentative stabilisation emerges as PMI improves, but trade noise and weak confidence keep risks elevated.
- Peru’s BCRP trims rates toward neutral as inflation eases and activity is resilient; risks still loom, though.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR fell again in July, confirming a poor start to Q3 amid broad sectoral weakness.
- Retail and services are slowing as high borrowing costs erode resilience, despite job market support.
- Copom set to hold Selic rate at 15%, signalling prolonged tight policy amid sticky inflation.
- Disinflation gains traction in Brazil, but sticky core inflation will keep COPOM on high alert.
- Energy and food drive relief to the headline number, but services and labour costs still pose inflation risks.
- BCCh holds rates at 4.75% as core inflation stays firm and labour market strains delay easing path.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation, election optimism
- Mexico — Upwards amid cautious optimism
- Colombia — Nears 13-year high on broad gains
- Headline inflation eases in Mexico, but sticky core services limit Banxico’s scope to ease.
- The Economic Package prioritises targeted capex, fiscal consolidation and sustained social spending.
- MXN strength and prudent debt management support stability; trade uncertainty restrains growth.
- Chile’s downside inflation surprise strengthens the case for a cautious 25bp policy rate cut today.
- Colombia’s inflation persists, as food and service components push the headline rate above 5%.
- BanRep remains cautious, with structural inflation drivers and fiscal reform clouding the policy outlook.
- Growth is steady in Chile, led by resilient services, a mining rebound and capex; net trade is a drag.
- Inflation is easing gradually, but sticky services prices and wage pass-through delay convergence to target.
- The fiscal deficit has widened, and labour market slack and political uncertainty cloud the outlook.
- Brazilian Real — Resilient, but volatility is persisting
- Mexican Peso — Stable, but capped by external noise
- Colombian Peso — Early rebound before consolidation
- Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply, as temporary supports fade and monetary tightening bites.
- Household consumption and services showed resilience, but capex saw renewed weakness.
- Peru’s inflation is firmly anchored, giving BCRP flexibility to balance demand and external uncertainty.
