UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
- Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
- But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
- Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
- …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fracturing global trade will begin to weigh on the trade balance in the coming months.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market is cooling now but activity will pick up in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A May rate cut is a racing certainty after CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast in March.
- But underlying services inflation held steady at 4.5%, while tax hikes, government-set price increases…
- ...and unwinding erratic factors weighing on March inflation will still drive CPI inflation to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Treat March’s huge payrolls drop with caution, it will very likely be revised up.
- Looking across the range of labour-market data, the picture remains one of gradual loosening.
- Pay growth remains far too high, but the hit to GDP growth from tariffs risks a faster job market easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
- House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
- Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
- …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
- The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Multiplying ONS errors increasingly hint at systemic problems that could affect more data series.
- The saving rate has disconnected from its usual economic drivers, so it may have been mis-estimated.
- Household income based on unreliable official job data is particularly subject to risk of error, we think.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Slow progress in implementing the Bernanke review leaves us pessimistic about the resulting changes.
- Sub-optimal communication means the MPC will need higher interest rates than otherwise.
- The rapidly evolving trade war means we see three further 25bp cuts to Bank Rate in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 30K month-to-month fall in March payrolls, consistent with a 6k fall after revisions.
- The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% in February, from 4.4% in January.
- Pay growth remains sticky; we expect February private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
- We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
