UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line:Disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4, so the MPC will definitely cut rates in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The weight of services in the CPI is likely to rise slightly in 2025, while the weight of goods should fall.
- Weight changes will be small compared to last years’ but still add 11bp to our inflation forecast…
- …because a smaller than usual weight of airfares in January reduces the impact of New Year price falls.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We wobbled on our call for three rate cuts this year, but soft growth keeps us on track.
- GDP is now trending down slightly, and disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4.
- Payrolls next week will show whether employment really tanked in December, as the PMI signalled.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade deficit narrows in November but remains wide; import prices point to firming goods inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Budget uncertainty, tax hikes and Mr. Trump's tariff threats continue to weigh on growth
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation of 5% in 2025 according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation will reaccelerate in the New Year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Discount downside news which was driven by erratic airfares and hotels that will rebound; inflation is still heading above 3% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Growth halted when Ms. Reeves signalled tax hikes, a shock compounded by Mr. Trump’s tariff threats.
- But falling consumer saving and public spending will help growth recover in 2025.
- The MPC will cut rates in February but will have to be cautious as inflation rises above 3% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- December’s surprise inflation fall gives the MPC a narrow window of opportunity to cut rates in February.
- But lower inflation was due to plunging airfares, driven by an early CPI collection date.
- Airfares inflation will surge in January, as will private-school fees, raising CPI inflation to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Surging gilt yields have been driven mainly by a global repricing, rather than idiosyncratic UK sovereign risk.
- We expect gilt yields to fall during 2025 as the MPC cuts interest rates and fiscal worries fade.
- The Chancellor will plan for weaker public spending to offset higher debt interest costs.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in December, as tax hikes weigh on hiring intentions.
- The official unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.3% in November, but it is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rising price pressures are a problem for the MPC, jobs growth holding up better than REC and PMI suggest.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes hit employment, but the REC survey likely exaggerates the drop and wage growth rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation staying at 2.6% in December would be a temporary reprieve; it’s heading to 3.2% in April.
- The GDP rebound in November should lead to doubts about the accuracy of the PMI.
- Rising inflation expectations suggest the bond market is right to expect the MPC to be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
We expect CPI inflation to remain at 2.6% in December, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.- A huge base effect from falling motor fuel prices in December 2023 will boost inflation…
- …But that will be offset by a tobacco-price base effect and weak airfares due to an early CPI collection date.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: December BRC distorted by the late Black Friday, underlying retail sales volumes continue growing modestly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction output continues to grow solidly, despite PMI drop in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
