UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Headline CPI inflation should hold at 3.0% in January, 0.2pp higher than rate-setters expect.
- We expect hotel and phone app prices to push up services inflation to 5.1%, matching the MPC’s call.
- February is the ‘calm before the storm’ of price resets; inflation will rise to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Bank of England is far too sanguine about elevated long-term consumer inflation expectations.
- Five-year-ahead expectations hit a new high in Q1, adjusting for a methodology break in the BoE survey.
- Public satisfaction in the BoE’s handling of inflation remains depressed, hindering its credibility.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
SURVEYS SIGNAL A BUOYANT HOUSING MARKET...
- ...WE FORECAST PRICES TO RISE 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP is on track to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC's forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP is trending up by 0.8% month-to-month annualised, despite January’s small output fall.
- Break-adjusted five-year inflation expectations hit a record high since 2009; the MPC must be cautious.
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to keep interest rates on hold this Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Short-term volatility as stamp duty relief ends in April, but house prices will still rise 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales growth remains healthy, driven by strong real wage growth and rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House prices grew by 4.6% in 2024 as borrowing costs fell and affordability improved.
- We continue to expect official house prices to rise by 4% year-over-year in 2025.
- Sticky rates represent a downside risk to house prices, but homeowners can still bear the costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- GDP growth and inflation overshot MPC expectations, but services inflation and wages undershot.
- We expect stubborn wage growth to limit the MPC to two more rate cuts this year, in May and November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 28K month-to-month fall in February payrolls, which will eventually be revised up.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.4% in January, although it could easily round up to 4.5%.
- Pay growth is proving stubborn; we expect January private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.4% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: REC’s recovery indicates that the labour market is stabilising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP will have little effect on growth or the Bank of England.
- We expect the government eventually to go further, raising defence spending to at least 3.0% of GDP.
- The resulting higher neutral rate means we see Bank Rate at 4.0% by end-2026, up from 3.75% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK economic uncertainty has decoupled from soaring worries in the US.
- Consumer spending in the UK can recover, with uncertainty only modestly elevated.
- The PMI exaggerates weakness; the DMP shows jobs stalling rather than falling, and inflation rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Widespread uncertainty and weak demand pummel the PMI, but it should recover gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Job growth holds up and disinflation is over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Catastrophic jobs balance exaggerates economic weakness, but risks to our growth forecast are firmly down.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
- But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
- Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
- Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
- We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
