UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- Households’ liquid assets increased in September, but we think consumers are content at current levels.
- Lump-sum repayments are falling as borrowing costs tick down, and consumer caution remains low.
- Mortgage approvals have grown strongly, reaching their highest level since August 2022.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The number of company insolvencies is high, but insolvency rates are only a little elevated.
- Rising energy and food costs boosted insolvencies post-Covid; both shocks fading is easing distress.
- Insolvencies will keep falling as the economy grows and borrowing costs decrease.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI rebounds in October but still signals a weak manufacturing sector as Budget uncertainty takes a toll.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that looser fiscal policy in the October 30 Budget will boost GDP by 0.5% in 2025/26.
- As a result, the MPC will need to hold Bank Rate 25-to-50bp higher than it would otherwise.
- Rate-setters will keep cutting Bank Rate, but fiscal policy is one reason to expect only gradual cuts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We think the recent surge in gilt yields reflects stronger US data and inflation risks.
- A change to the fiscal rules will likely result in more borrowing in the upcoming Budget on October 30…
- ...but that likely had only a modest effect on market pricing, with little change in sovereign risk premia.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
- It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
- BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
