UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The MPC cut Bank Rate by 25bp in an eight-to-one vote, matching consensus expectations.
- But the MPC raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, and the minutes read more cautiously.
- We change our BoE call, now expecting three 25bp rate cuts in 2025, compared to four previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales growth falls according to the BRC, but it should improve
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI falls but still shows solid activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We cut our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 0.2% from 0.3% previously, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Ms. Reeves’ Budget will keep the MPC from easing at back-to-back meetings this year.
- We expect four 25bp cuts from rate-setters in 2025, at a pace of one per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expectations of further rate cuts continue to lift the housing market and corporate borrowing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The Chancellor used most of the extra borrowing capacity permitted by her new rules to spend more now.
- This loosening, and the extra labour costs for firms, will lift inflation, forcing the MPC to ease slowly.
- Headroom is tiny, so taxes might rise again if growth flags or interest rates exceed the OBR’s forecast.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Households’ liquid assets increased in September, but we think consumers are content at current levels.
- Lump-sum repayments are falling as borrowing costs tick down, and consumer caution remains low.
- Mortgage approvals have grown strongly, reaching their highest level since August 2022.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The number of company insolvencies is high, but insolvency rates are only a little elevated.
- Rising energy and food costs boosted insolvencies post-Covid; both shocks fading is easing distress.
- Insolvencies will keep falling as the economy grows and borrowing costs decrease.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
SLOWLY EASING INFLATION AND A LOOSER BUDGET...
- …THE MPC WILL CUT RATES ONCE PER QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI rebounds in October but still signals a weak manufacturing sector as Budget uncertainty takes a toll.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence falls on Budget, clarity on October 30 will help sentiment recover.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals slowing growth and stubborn services inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- Rachel Reeves’ loosening of fiscal rules will likely mean £24B per year more borrowing for investment.
- Markets will likely still see the new fiscal rules as credible, avoiding a ‘Liz Truss’ moment...
- ...as Chancellor Reeves’ focus on the current budget deficit shows commitment to sustainable policy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
