Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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17 May 2024 UK Monitor Sticking to June rate cut, as MPC words lately matter more than data

  • We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
  • The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
  • ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 May 2024 UK Monitor Unwinding of the BoE's balance sheet set to continue at pace

  • We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
  • The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
  • Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

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U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,