Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

25 October 2024 UK Monitor Slowing PMI means consecutive rate cuts are on the table

  • The composite PMI fell to an 11-month low, as Budget uncertainty hit firms.
  • The forward-looking balances suggest that the PMI will rebound in November.
  • The PMI indicates that inflation is stubborn and firms expanded margins more quickly in October.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

24 October 2024 UK Monitor Interest rate cuts will boost business investment

  • UK business investment has flatlined for eight years, but an upturn seems to be underway.
  • Firms are borrowing again as interest rates fall, and CFOs report the cost of credit is easing.
  • Investment intentions signal 2.9% capex growth year-over-year in Q3. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, September 2024

  • In one line:Government borrowing overshoots OBR forecast again, Ms. Reeves will raise planned taxes, spending and borrowing in her October 30 budget.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

23 October 2024 UK Monitor The Budget is worth 25-to-50bp on Bank Rate

  • We estimate that looser fiscal policy in the October 30 Budget will boost GDP by 0.5% in 2025/26.
  • As a result, the MPC will need to hold Bank Rate 25-to-50bp higher than it would otherwise.
  • Rate-setters will keep cutting Bank Rate, but fiscal policy is one reason to expect only gradual cuts.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

22 October 2024 UK Monitor Gilt yields will react little to likely change to fiscal rules

  • We expect the Chancellor to raise government investment by £24B in 2028/29 in the Budget.
  • Ms. Reeves will change the fiscal rules to allow more borrowing to fund the extra investment.
  • We expect the Chancellor to target public sector net liabilities falling relative to GDP.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, September 2024

  • In one line:Retail sales defy the rain to rise in September. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

21 October 2024 UK Monitor So much for Budget uncertainty weighing on consumers

  • Surprisingly strong retail sales in September suggest consumers are shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
  • Weather and unfavourable seasonals hit September sales, so the trend is better than the headlines.
  • Real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help consumer spending support GDP growth in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 October 2024 UK Monitor Budget will be stimulatory, despite large tax increases

  • The October 30 Budget will likely boost government spending more than taxes, raising growth.
  • Tax hikes will pay for day-to-day spending, while Ms. Reeves will tweak her fiscal rule to boost investment.
  • Markets will be unruffled, so gilt yields could fall as any additional sovereign risk premium unwinds.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, August

  • In one line: House prices rebound strongly in August as rate cuts feed through.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, September 2024

  • In one line: Volatile air fares cut CPI services inflation and will rebound, but Governor Bailey will now look for “aggressive" cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, August / September 2024

  • In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, August / September 2024

  • In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 October 2024 UK Monitor Inflation brings Governor Bailey's "aggressive" rate cuts into view

  • The decline in CPI inflation in September likely leaves Governor Bailey primed for “aggressive” rate cuts.
  • But the fall in services inflation was exaggerated by volatile airfares; the MPC likely will look through this.
  • We still expect the MPC to cut rates quarterly, but a consecutive cut in December is a close call now.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 October 2024 UK Monitor Unreliable labour-market data make the MPC's job harder

  • The official labour-market data tell a comforting story of improving labour supply and falling wage growth.
  • But the LFS data are too unreliable to take seriously, and AWE seems to exaggerate the slowdown in pay.
  • The MPC has enough to cut rates in November, but the data fog will restrict easing to once per quarter.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 October 2024 UK Monitor A stimulatory Budget will keep the MPC cutting only quarterly

  • We expect a stimulatory Budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on October 30.
  • A growth-boosting Budget should limit the MPC to cutting interest rates only once per quarter.
  • Markets will be unruffled by a modest change to Ms. Reeves’ fiscal rules, so gilt yields could fall.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, August 2024

  • In one line: The headline trade deficit narrows because of erratics and metals.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP August 2024

  • In one line:August’s GDP rebound underwhelmed, cutting our Q3 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 October 2024 UK Monitor GDP will keep trending up solidly despite the trend slowing

  • GDP grew 0.2% month-to-month in August as erratic drags on July output unwound.
  • Downward revisions to earlier months, however, cut our Q3 GDP forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
  • That leaves a November MPC rate cut as a racing certainty, even though growth should rebound in Q4.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2024

  • In one line: House price inflation surges after MPC rate cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 October 2024 UK Monitor Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along

  • Disposable income surged 2.8% in H1 2024, but consumer spending rose only 0.8%.
  • We expect the resulting jump in the saving rate to reverse through 2025, supporting consumption.
  • Disposable income growth will slow, but remain solid at 1.3% year-over-year in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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