Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, February 2025

  • In one line: Catastrophic jobs balance exaggerates economic weakness, but risks to our growth forecast are firmly down.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, February 2025

  • In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, January 2025

  • In one line: Consumers are spending again but uncertainty hits investment.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, February 2025

  • In one line: Surging global uncertainty hammers manufacturing output, but watch rising price pressures.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2025

  • In one line: House prices rise again in February, but watch for a slowdown after April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 March 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: UK consumers can drive a growth rebound in 2025

  • High and rising global economic policy uncertainty has hit business investment hard.
  • But consumer spending is recovering from an autumn wobble, so GDP growth can improve in 2025.
  • Inflation will peak at 3.7% in September, allowing the MPC to cut only twice more this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, January 2025

  • In one line:Retail sales recover from pre-Budget worries, more gains lie ahead as wages rise solidly.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, January 2025

  • In one line:Fiscal pressures pile on the Chancellor as revenues undershoot in January; it will only get worse from here.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, February 2025

  • In one line: Growth is weak but has bottomed while price pressures remain stubborn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, February 2025

  • In one line: Strong wage growth and falling interest rates will keep supporting consumers’ confidence.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

24 February 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: the economy is recovering from October's stumble

  • The PMI signals an almost catastrophic jobs outlook, but more reliable official data are better.
  • The official employment data look more plausible to us; payrolls have stalled rather than collapsed.
  • Inflation is proving stubborn, as firms increasingly pass through cost increases to prices.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January 2025

  • In one line: Softer than feared services offset by global price pressures, further inflation acceleration lies ahead.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, December

  • In one line: Seasonally adjusted house prices rise in December to cap a strong year, but house-price inflation will be even stronger in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, December / January 2025

  • In one line: The jobs market holds up better than expected, generating strong wage growth that will keep the MPC cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, February 2025

  • In one line: Focus on the hawkish inflation forecasts, rather than the dovish vote. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, January 2025

  • In one line:  Employment stagnates but disinflation is over.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 February 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: the economy is in better shape than feared

  • The economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% GDP gain in December.
  • The next OBR forecast will be based on lower gilt yields, giving Ms. Reeves back some headroom.
  • We expect payrolls to be revised up, strong wage growth, and CPI inflation to jump to 2.8%.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January 2025

  • In one line: The BRC kickstarts the year with strong growth, we expect it to continue.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, December 2024

  • In one line: The trade deficit will be held back by high energy prices and President Trump’s tariff threats in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, January 2025

  • In one line: Looming end of stamp duty relief causes volatility, longer-term house price outlook still looks solid.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,