UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line:Retail sales recover from pre-Budget worries, more gains lie ahead as wages rise solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Fiscal pressures pile on the Chancellor as revenues undershoot in January; it will only get worse from here.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth is weak but has bottomed while price pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong wage growth and falling interest rates will keep supporting consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI signals an almost catastrophic jobs outlook, but more reliable official data are better.
- The official employment data look more plausible to us; payrolls have stalled rather than collapsed.
- Inflation is proving stubborn, as firms increasingly pass through cost increases to prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Softer than feared services offset by global price pressures, further inflation acceleration lies ahead.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Seasonally adjusted house prices rise in December to cap a strong year, but house-price inflation will be even stronger in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The jobs market holds up better than expected, generating strong wage growth that will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Focus on the hawkish inflation forecasts, rather than the dovish vote.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Employment stagnates but disinflation is over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% GDP gain in December.
- The next OBR forecast will be based on lower gilt yields, giving Ms. Reeves back some headroom.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up, strong wage growth, and CPI inflation to jump to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The BRC kickstarts the year with strong growth, we expect it to continue.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade deficit will be held back by high energy prices and President Trump’s tariff threats in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Looming end of stamp duty relief causes volatility, longer-term house price outlook still looks solid.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Better-than-expected growth should reduce recession worries and suggests the PMI is exaggerating economic weakness.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market improved marginally in January but remains hobbled according to the REC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We still expect three rate cuts in total this year—two more—after the surprisingly dovish MPC voted to cut.
- Vote splits are a poor guide to subsequent decisions, while the MPC’s inflation forecast was hawkish.
- We expect Catherine Mann to explain this week that she was calling for a one-off rate adjustment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI tanks, but was driven by erratic falls and should improve.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will have to plot a middle path.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
