UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- GDP growth and inflation overshot MPC expectations, but services inflation and wages undershot.
- We expect stubborn wage growth to limit the MPC to two more rate cuts this year, in May and November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 28K month-to-month fall in February payrolls, which will eventually be revised up.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.4% in January, although it could easily round up to 4.5%.
- Pay growth is proving stubborn; we expect January private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.4% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP will have little effect on growth or the Bank of England.
- We expect the government eventually to go further, raising defence spending to at least 3.0% of GDP.
- The resulting higher neutral rate means we see Bank Rate at 4.0% by end-2026, up from 3.75% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK economic uncertainty has decoupled from soaring worries in the US.
- Consumer spending in the UK can recover, with uncertainty only modestly elevated.
- The PMI exaggerates weakness; the DMP shows jobs stalling rather than falling, and inflation rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
- But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
- Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
- Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
- We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
- Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
- But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- High and rising global economic policy uncertainty has hit business investment hard.
- But consumer spending is recovering from an autumn wobble, so GDP growth can improve in 2025.
- Inflation will peak at 3.7% in September, allowing the MPC to cut only twice more this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
- We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
- We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales volumes were trending up at a 2.2% monthly annualised rate until the October Budget.
- Falling UK-specific policy uncertainty has allowed retail spending to rebound from the autumn stumble.
- The BDO industry survey shows non-food retail sales rising at the fastest rate in two years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
- The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
- We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Households say that now is almost as good a time to save as during the 2008 financial crisis.
- But we are not worried, because saving intentions have been a very poor consumer-spending indicator.
- Confidence in personal finances is solid, and major purchase intentions signal solid retail volumes growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI signals an almost catastrophic jobs outlook, but more reliable official data are better.
- The official employment data look more plausible to us; payrolls have stalled rather than collapsed.
- Inflation is proving stubborn, as firms increasingly pass through cost increases to prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation surged as airfares unwound erratic weakness, school fees rose and food prices jumped.
- Rising core goods inflation is offsetting weaker-than-expected services inflation.
- The MPC will have to be careful as inflation heads to 3.7% in September; 4% is not out of the question.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Labour market data indicate little sign of a sharp job downturn, with payrolls stalling rather than collapsing.
- Vacancies stabilised in January, and jobless claims have dropped since the Budget.
- Pay growth is running at about twice the rate needed to return inflation sustainably to target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% GDP gain in December.
- The next OBR forecast will be based on lower gilt yields, giving Ms. Reeves back some headroom.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up, strong wage growth, and CPI inflation to jump to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Tax hikes and tariff uncertainty kept UK growth weak at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- But the economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% monthly gain in December.
- Strong consumer services spending suggests rapid real wage growth will help GDP rebound in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- December’s payrolls fall should be revised up, and we look for a 20K month-to-month drop in January.
- The official unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in December, and is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in December, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
