UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The MPC voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold, as expected.
- The minutes of the meeting give the strong impression that the MPC is itching to cut rates.
- We stick to our call that the MPC will wait until September, but August is very much live.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation returned to the 2.0% target in May, for the first time since July 2021…
- …But CPI services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.4pp, more than the 0.3pp miss in April.
- So, we push back our call for the first MPC rate cut to September, from August previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House-price inflation has slowed as rising mortgage interest rates have deterred buyers…
- …But the typical two-year mortgage rate will drop 50bp by year-end if market pricing of rate cuts is right.
- We expect house prices to regain momentum and rise 3% year-over-year in December 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
- We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
- We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC can take some comfort from one-year consumer inflation expectations falling back to average.
- But five-year expectations are elevated, and trust in the central bank is failing to recover as inflation falls.
- Trust in the BoE is faring worse than trust in the ECB, suggesting UK inflation will prove more persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to hold Bank Rate, after growth, wages and inflation beat its forecasts.
- Inflation persistence fading more slowly than expected means the MPC will keep its guidance unchanged.
- We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think unchanged GDP month-to-month in April signals a strong underlying trend.
- GDP held steady despite erratic and rain-disrupted sectors slicing 0.4pp off month-to-month growth.
- We upgrade our growth forecast to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.2% call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The labour market appears to be easing gradually, with employment likely flat and unemployment rising.
- Slowing underlying pay momentum is being masked by the temporary boost from April’s NLW hike.
- A gradually easing labour market, and falling inflation, will allow the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC forecast.
- We estimate that half of the April services inflation surprise was a one-off that will drop out in May.
- The MPC can still cut Bank Rate in August as long as inflation keeps slowing, but it will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The next government will inherit no fiscal headroom and implausible public-spending forecasts.
- The Labour Party has ruled out increases to three-quarters of the tax base, limiting options.
- We expect the next government to raise duties, tier BoE reserves, and increase public spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP fell 0.2% month-to-month in April, as wet weather reduced consumer spending.
- We still expect 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q2, as retail sales should bounce back in May…
- ...Business surveys, moreover, suggest output growth remains robust.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
- The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
- We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
- We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
- Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE money and credit data suggest higher mortgage rates have taken the steam out of consumption.
- But the consumer credit data are distorted by data issues, and saving was driven by a record ISA flow.
- Business confidence is still rising, so we think the economy will keep growing robustly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The National Living Wage hike will push private-sector regular pay to a solid 0.8% month-to-month April rise.
- But survey indicators continue to signal gradually slowing wage growth, as recruitment difficulties ease.
- Average weekly earnings growth should slow decisively in H2 2024 as the NLW distortions fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Opinion polls differ widely, but they all suggest Labour will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- PM Sunak’s attempts to convert undecided older voters may be hurt by his poor approval ratings.
- The BRC Shop Price Index drives up our May CPI inflation forecast to 2.1%, from 2.0% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August, versus June previously, following strong April inflation.
- Services inflation barely slowed in April and was 0.4pp stronger than the MPC expected.
- The services strength was widespread and not concentrated in a handful of erratic items.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
