UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: House prices defy high interest rates to rise strongly in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic hotel prices drive June inflation surprise, but this is too strong for the MPC to cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
- It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech last week signals the first rate cut is mostly data-independent.
- The hawks are shifting to argue for only gradual cuts, so back-to-back reductions will face stiff resistance.
- Mr. Pill suggested interest rates may need to remain persistently restrictive to keep inflation at the target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Import prices signal a modest uptick in core goods CPI inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stronger-than-expected growth pressures the MPC to delay a rate cut until September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation holds steady in June, but will rise in the coming months as buyers return.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
- Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
- We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
- Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Exit poll projects large Labour majority.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Still weak but registrations will pick up later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Two steps forward, one step back.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More encouragement for the MPC to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in May, as retail sales and manufacturing rebound.
- GDP is on track to increase 0.5% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect growth to slow to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in H2 2024, still stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in June, but we think this will not become a trend...
- …as businesses will look to ramp up activity if the election delivers a clear result.
- Output prices picked up in June, squeezing the MPC’s room for manoeuvre at its August meeting.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers are back in business.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
