- In one line: Borrowing overshoots Budget forecasts but the Chancellor will still cut taxes again later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Disappointing in March but retail will still boost Q1 GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales ended Q1 with a whimper, stagnating in March as department-store sales tanked.
- Look through the month-to-month volatility though, and retail sales growth is trending up.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, after Governor Bailey downplayed the inflation miss.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Trade deficit little changed in February, but will improve this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: GDP is on track for 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1, beating MPC forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Building hopes of rate cuts boost buyer demand and house prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Early easter boosts March retail sales, growth will slow in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Report on Jobs survey says it’s time to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts prove to be an effective tonic for construction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast and services inflation easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by rising household real income.
- Energy-price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in Q2; sticky services will return inflation above 2% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC gradually to ease its restrictive policy, with the first cut in June and 75bp total in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Almost back to growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Consumer caution fading in response to lower interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Small correction in March is just a blip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Still a minor technical recession last year, but the economy is already rebounding.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Revised data still show a minor recession last year, but it’s an even smaller 0.4% cumulative GDP fall.
- The recession was driven by rising saving, as consumers worried about energy bills and interest rates.
- The saving rate won’t increase further from its elevated level, so consumption can recover in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales are on track to drag the economy out of recession in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening finances will drive consumer spending this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
