UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in December, as tax hikes weigh on hiring intentions.
- The official unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.3% in November, but it is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in November, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rising price pressures are a problem for the MPC, jobs growth holding up better than REC and PMI suggest.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes hit employment, but the REC survey likely exaggerates the drop and wage growth rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation staying at 2.6% in December would be a temporary reprieve; it’s heading to 3.2% in April.
- The GDP rebound in November should lead to doubts about the accuracy of the PMI.
- Rising inflation expectations suggest the bond market is right to expect the MPC to be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
We expect CPI inflation to remain at 2.6% in December, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.- A huge base effect from falling motor fuel prices in December 2023 will boost inflation…
- …But that will be offset by a tobacco-price base effect and weak airfares due to an early CPI collection date.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: December BRC distorted by the late Black Friday, underlying retail sales volumes continue growing modestly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction output continues to grow solidly, despite PMI drop in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: New car registrations growth continues to recover from the Budget-induced October weakness.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in November, driven by services and mining.
- Upside risks to our call could arise from energy output, GP appointments and hospitality.
- We continue to forecast 0.1% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q4.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 2.6% in December, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Weak airfares inflation in December—due to early CPI collection—should offset fading energy deflation.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise in the New Year, reaching 3.2% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We cut our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.1% quarter-to-quarter after the disappointing December PMI.
- But the Q4 BCC survey indicates employment is holding up better than the disastrous PMI implies.
- The MPC will wait for the hard data to roll in before giving firmer guidance on interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Nationwide’s house price index rises in December to cap a recovery in the housing market in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI drops in December as demand weakens and sentiment sours.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Q3 GDP growth revised down to zero, but we expect a rebound and stronger growth in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Nationwide house price index for December signals continued momentum in the housing market.
- Official house price inflation will rise to 4% year-over-year in December, with upside risks to that call.
- Sticky borrowing costs will keep annual house price inflation at 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE PRICES REBOUND IN OCTOBER...
- ...AND HOUSE PRICE INFLATION WILL HIT 4% IN DECEMBER...
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Public sector borrowing likely marginally below October Budget forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales bounce back in November but disappoint relative to consensus.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sterling had a strong year against a basket of major currencies; it will hold these levels in 2025.
- Favourable interest rate differentials between the UK and major peers will support the GBP.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.27 and GBPEUR at 1.21 at end-2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
