UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- The number of company insolvencies is high, but insolvency rates are only a little elevated.
- Rising energy and food costs boosted insolvencies post-Covid; both shocks fading is easing distress.
- Insolvencies will keep falling as the economy grows and borrowing costs decrease.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI rebounds in October but still signals a weak manufacturing sector as Budget uncertainty takes a toll.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that looser fiscal policy in the October 30 Budget will boost GDP by 0.5% in 2025/26.
- As a result, the MPC will need to hold Bank Rate 25-to-50bp higher than it would otherwise.
- Rate-setters will keep cutting Bank Rate, but fiscal policy is one reason to expect only gradual cuts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We think the recent surge in gilt yields reflects stronger US data and inflation risks.
- A change to the fiscal rules will likely result in more borrowing in the upcoming Budget on October 30…
- ...but that likely had only a modest effect on market pricing, with little change in sovereign risk premia.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
- It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
- BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Higher core goods and services inflation in August will raise CPI inflation to 2.3%, from 2.2% in July.
- Goods inflation should tick up as used car prices rise and furniture prices rebound from July discounts.
- We look for CPI inflation to be 0.1pp less than the MPC expects, and services 0.2pp lower.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
