September 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE-PRICE RECOVERY FALTERS IN JULY, BUT IT’S A BLIP...

• ...PRICE INFLATION WILL ACCELERATE TO 4.5% IN DECEMBER

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, August 2024

• In one line:Retail sales flattered by the weather, but the trend is up as real wage gains drive stronger spending. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, August 2024

• In one line: The strengthening PMI means the MPC will wait until November to cut rates again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August 2024

• In one line: Retail sales gain more ground in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July 2024

• In one line: Retail sales return to growth in July.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, July 2024

• In one line: The PMI signals steady growth now and a stronger expansion to follow.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

July 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICES DEFY HIGH INTEREST RATES...

• ...WE EXPECT 4% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, June 2024

• In one line:Colder weather deters shoppers but overall GDP will still jump in Q2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2024

• In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

June 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

STEADY GROWTH DESPITE STICKY RATES...

• ...HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY TO ACCELERATE IN H2

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, May 2024

• In one line:Shoppers return in force, offering upside risks to Q2 GDP.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, May 2024

• In one line: Slowing inflation will make the MPC happy.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2024

• In one line: Retail sales bounce back from April’s catastrophe.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

May 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

LATER RATE CUTS SLOW THE HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY...

• ...WE EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO RISE ONLY 3% IN 2024

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, April 2024

• In one line: Retail sales will bounce back from April's collapse as consumer confidence improves.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2024

• In one line: A grim April but retail sales should recover as the weather improves.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK final services and composite PMI, April 2024

• In one line: Strengthening growth and slowing inflation, but watch the jump in input costs.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March

In one line: Sign of Life. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK

April 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

A SMALL WOBBLE AS MORTGAGE-RATE DROP PAUSES...

• ...BUT PRICES WILL STILL RISE 4% IN 2024

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, March 2024

• In one line: Disappointing in March but retail will still boost Q1 GDP.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK