UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Imminent interest rate cuts boost consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Cooler weather in June led to a 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes.
- We think the ONS data exaggerate the drop in retail sales because surveys suggest a stronger reading.
- The new government will likely borrow £10B-to-£20B a year more and raise taxes to fund more spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market is easing making an August rate cut a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices defy high interest rates to rise strongly in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic hotel prices drive June inflation surprise, but this is too strong for the MPC to cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
- It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR’s forthcoming Fiscal Sustainability Report will deem debt to be on an unsustainable path.
- The report will provide support to our call that the government will have to raise taxes.
- We think the report will place renewed focus on the need for a long-term plan for the public finances.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech last week signals the first rate cut is mostly data-independent.
- The hawks are shifting to argue for only gradual cuts, so back-to-back reductions will face stiff resistance.
- Mr. Pill suggested interest rates may need to remain persistently restrictive to keep inflation at the target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Import prices signal a modest uptick in core goods CPI inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We raise our forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in 2025 to 1.6%, from 1.4% previously.
- Strong GDP growth so far this year suggests that the drag from interest rate hikes is fading.
- A 3.2% rise in household real income in 2024 will power GDP gains of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stronger-than-expected growth pressures the MPC to delay a rate cut until September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation holds steady in June, but will rise in the coming months as buyers return.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Output rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, putting GDP 1.5% higher than at the start of the year.
- We raise our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% quarter-to-quarter and see upside risk.
- Yesterday’s release supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut Bank Rate.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Company insolvencies surged to a record high in 2023, but that exaggerates corporate distress.
- The liquidation rate remains far from its peak and rose mainly due to catch-up after a hiatus in 2020.
- We expect insolvencies to fall as GDP growth rebounds and the MPC begins cutting Bank Rate.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
- Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
- We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
- Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
