UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Doves let loose, another rate cut is coming by year-end.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Supporting the MPC’s decision to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing growth and employment to accelerate as business optimism soars.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation beats expectations again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC cut rates 25bp as consensus expected, but surprised markets with dovish words and forecasts.
- The MPC cut its mode two-year inflation forecast to 1.7%, and ditched services inflation as a lode star.
- We expect one more cut this year and three in 2025 as inflation runs above the MPC’s mode forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...BUT THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, IF NOT IN AUGUST
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Smaller utility price cuts this July than in 2023 will push up CPI inflation to 2.2%, from 2.0% in June.
- We expect the easing of utilities price deflation to be offset by slower goods and services inflation.
- Uncertainty is high as our call hinges on volatile public rents, likely strong, and hotel prices, likely weak.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending audit suggests £16.5B higher government borrowing in 2024/25.
- Interest costs will add to pressures; we expect borrowing £22B above the Budget forecast for 2024/25.
- Fiscal pressures build over time, so tax hikes along with higher borrowing are likely in the longer term.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Increased risk appetite and approaching rate cuts led firms to raise finance for the third month in four.
- Consumers continue to plough money into ISAs to take advantage of good deposit rates.
- But we doubt households will save more, as they are already building up real liquid assets at a decent clip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth continues to outperform consensus estimates and MPC projections.
- Services inflation remains elevated and is overshooting forecasts by a widening margin.
- We think the MPC will wait and cut Bank Rate in September, but it is a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC as inflation slows but employment and business confidence surge.
Samuel TombsUK
HOUSE PRICES DEFY HIGH INTEREST RATES...
- ...WE EXPECT 4% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI orders and prices fall in July, but both should rebound in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- The MPC said its decision depends on GDP, services inflation and wages; all have exceeded its forecasts.
- It will be a hawkish cut if rate-setters do go ahead, with their guidance likely cautious about future easing.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The July PMI is consistent with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- But surging new orders and future business expectations suggest the PMI will leap in August.
- Slowing output prices will comfort the MPC, but stronger hiring could keep wage growth elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The wide current account deficit reflects elevated fuel import costs and weak investment income.
- Neither factor is likely to improve in the near future, so we expect the large current account deficit to persist.
- That will hold sterling back, as will the weakest international investment position in 37 years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted she would accept 5.5% public-sector pay rises this year.
- We also expect Ms. Reeves to raise government borrowing by £22B in 2029/30 in the Autumn Statement.
- Higher public-sector pay rises than expected will have only a minor effect on the interest rate outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
