UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- The BoE money and credit data suggest higher mortgage rates have taken the steam out of consumption.
- But the consumer credit data are distorted by data issues, and saving was driven by a record ISA flow.
- Business confidence is still rising, so we think the economy will keep growing robustly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The National Living Wage hike will push private-sector regular pay to a solid 0.8% month-to-month April rise.
- But survey indicators continue to signal gradually slowing wage growth, as recruitment difficulties ease.
- Average weekly earnings growth should slow decisively in H2 2024 as the NLW distortions fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter for the rest of the year, after the 0.6% increase in Q1.
- Sticky services prices and energy effects mean we see inflation rising to 2.8% by Q4 2024.
- We now expect the first Bank Rate cut in August, then once per quarter thereafter.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Opinion polls differ widely, but they all suggest Labour will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- PM Sunak’s attempts to convert undecided older voters may be hurt by his poor approval ratings.
- The BRC Shop Price Index drives up our May CPI inflation forecast to 2.1%, from 2.0% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers will spend more as their financial situation improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI points to growth well in excess of MPC forecasts and robust inflation pressure.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strong April services inflation was just a flash in the pan according to the PMI.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth drives a consumer upturn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales will bounce back from April's collapse as consumer confidence improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices jump in March, but further gains will be more challenging as markets reprice rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: June rate cut off the cards as services barely slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: There isn't room for tax cuts but the Chancellor seems set on another fiscal event in the Autumn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August, versus June previously, following strong April inflation.
- Services inflation barely slowed in April and was 0.4pp stronger than the MPC expected.
- The services strength was widespread and not concentrated in a handful of erratic items.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Polls suggest the Labour Party will win the general election that must be held by January 2025.
- The party plans supply-side boosting initiatives, from freeing planning rules to ‘crowding in’ investment.
- Those policies pose modest upside risk to current UK potential growth of around 1.5% per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
- But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
- Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
- The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
- ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
- The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
- Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
