UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We have nudged down our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter after GDP flatlined in July.
- We lift our 2025 inflation forecast as we add in above inflation duty hikes and private school fee rises.
- We expect a 25bp rate cut in November and three more in 2025, as the MPC guides to “gradual cuts”.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A suite of Taylor rules forecasts Bank Rate between 3.4% and 4.3% at the end of 2025.
- These forecasts are based on MPC inflation and growth projections, which we think are too low.
- Policy rules that are more robust to uncertainty about the neutral rate suggest more gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE-PRICE RECOVERY FALTERS IN JULY, BUT IT’S A BLIP...
- ...PRICE INFLATION WILL ACCELERATE TO 4.5% IN DECEMBER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A Chancellor scrabbling for tax revenue will likely turn to alcohol and tobacco duty hikes.
- We expect Ms. Reeves to raise tobacco duty—by 4% above RPI inflation—and alcohol duty in December.
- Our forecasts include a 10% private-school fee hike, split September 2024, January and September 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth will bounce back but easing inflation will lead the MPC to cut rates in November.
Samuel TombsUK
- We expect house price inflation to accelerate to 4.5% year-over-year in December.
- MPC rate cuts, solid wage growth and low unemployment will drive that housing rebound.
- Forward-looking indicators suggest upside risk; they point to 6% year-over-year house price gains.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI points to struggling manufacturing but it is volatile, watch the stronger PMI instead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales flattered by the weather, but the trend is up as real wage gains drive stronger spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Government borrowing overshoot widens, so the Chancellor will raise taxes and change the debt rule in the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tax hike fears cut consumers’ confidence, but we expect it to rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The composite PMI decline and drop in output price inflation raise the potential for faster rate cuts.
- But the PMI remains consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth…
- ...While still-strong forward-looking sub-balances suggest the headline PMI will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect payback for the 1.0% month-to-month August gain in retail sales, boosted by warm weather.
- But look through the volatile sector detail, and retail sales volumes are trending up as real wages rise.
- Consumer confidence, likely depressed by rising inflation expectations, poses a downside risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC kept Bank Rate on hold, as expected, but the 8-to-1 vote was less dovish than expected.
- The MPC signalled a gradual rate-cutting cycle, which suggests to us one cut per quarter.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in November and again in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices drop in July but should rebound as interest rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Services inflation rebounds close to the MPC’s forecast, keeping it on track to hold rates tomorrow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Underlying services inflation pressures continue to ease, so the MPC will cut rates again this year.
- But August’s CPI inflation gives the MPC little reason to rush to cut today; it will wait until November.
- Core CPI inflation jumped to 3.6% in August, which we think was close to the MPC’s expectation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumer confidence has provided a reliable signal of consumer spending for 50 years.
- Confidence points to consumption strengthening and unemployment falling.
- Consumers’ saving intentions are high but they provide little useful signal about actual saving.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Better anchored inflation expectations have helped deliver a more benign disinflation than feared.
- But the MPC should retain some caution as long-run household inflation expectations are a little elevated...
- …satisfaction in the BoE remains low and households are more attentive to inflation than before Covid.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation accelerates immediately after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
