UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- GDP grew 0.2% month-to-month in August as erratic drags on July output unwound.
- Downward revisions to earlier months, however, cut our Q3 GDP forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- That leaves a November MPC rate cut as a racing certainty, even though growth should rebound in Q4.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation surges after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Disposable income surged 2.8% in H1 2024, but consumer spending rose only 0.8%.
- We expect the resulting jump in the saving rate to reverse through 2025, supporting consumption.
- Disposable income growth will slow, but remain solid at 1.3% year-over-year in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think the recent surge in gilt yields reflects stronger US data and inflation risks.
- A change to the fiscal rules will likely result in more borrowing in the upcoming Budget on October 30…
- ...but that likely had only a modest effect on market pricing, with little change in sovereign risk premia.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales rise solidly, shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- All of the undershoot relative to the MPC’s call is accounted for by falling motor fuel prices.
- CPI services inflation will likely slip 0.2pp to 5.4%, as a hotel price jump partially offset a fall in airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- September business surveys suggest a hiring pause ahead of the October 30 Budget.
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in September and the August jobless rate held at 4.1%.
- The DMP and PAYE pay point to a 0.6% month-to-month private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC stays weak, supporting another 25bp rate cut in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- BoE Governor Bailey’s Guardian interview has raised the risk of rate cuts at consecutive MPC meetings.
- We expect the MPC to cut once a quarter, but see four rate cuts in 2025 from three previously.
- We expect higher inflation than the MPC, growth remains solid and MPC guidance is for gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI surges as lower borrowing costs and optimism boost activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Recruitment difficulties ease but inflation and wage growth prove stubbornly elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
- It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
- BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in August, as retail sales grow and doctors’ strikes end.
- Manufacturing output should also rebound from erratic weakness in July.
- We look for Q3 growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, but GDP revisions pose a downside risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The MPC will cut gradually, next in November and then in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI dips in September on Budget uncertainty, but output growth remains strong.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sharply falling motor fuel prices will drag down CPI inflation to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August.
- Core goods inflation should hold at 0.3% year-over-year, but BRC Shop Prices pose a downside risk.
- We expect core and services inflation close to theMPC’s August Monetary Policy Report forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Q2 GDP growth revised down but remains above potential, while downward saving rate revisions point to slightly less cautious consumers.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, but the mix of growth is better…
- …Business capex growth was revised up and cuts to the saving rate signal less cautious consumers.
- Surging mortgage approvals show consumers are responding quickly to the MPC’s interest rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
