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18th Nov 2024 18:36UKDaily Monitor

  • The MPC is forecasting private pay growth, excluding bonuses, to slow to 3.25% in Q4 2025.
  • But the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is high and rising CPI inflation in 2025 could boost pay…
  • ...so we expect private ex-bonus AWE growth to slow to 4.0% in Q4 2025, with risks skewed up.

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Keywords for: 20 November 2024 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence