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23rd Apr 2025 09:50UKDaily Monitor

  • A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
  • But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.

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Keywords for: 25 April 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence