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30th Jan 2025 19:05UKWeekly Monitor

  • Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
  • We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
  • We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.

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Keywords for: 3 February 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence