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2nd Apr 2025 09:39UKDaily Monitor

  • We assume a 10% tariff on UK goods exports to the US lowers 2025 UK GDP growth by 0.2pp.
  • But strengthening growth in services—immune from tariffs—shows that UK growth can hold up.
  • Strong domestic price pressures will keep the MPC cautious; we still expect two more rate cuts this year.

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Keywords for: 4 April 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence