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3rd Feb 2025 09:32UKDaily Monitor

  • We think President Trump’s tariffs, by fracturing supply chains, will be stagflationary for the UK.
  • We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.8% in January, 0.3pp more than the MPC expected.
  • Goods inflation will slow, but airfares and private-school fees will boost services inflation.

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Keywords for: 4 February 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence