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4th Mar 2025 08:47UKDaily Monitor

  • The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
  • But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
  • Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.

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Keywords for: 6 March 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence